| The unloading arm in LNG receiving station,as the hub of LNG ship and LNG receiving station,is called "the Pearl on the crown".It is of great significance to study the risks and safety risks in the unloading arm operation to ensure the daily production.Based on the study of unloading operation of LNG unloading arm,this paper evaluates the risk of performance fluctuation of each functional module of unloading operation according to the functional resonance model,and speculates the failure consequences caused by the vibration resonance of the module.There is leakage risk in the unloading operation.In order to better warn the leakage accident,the leakage accident scenario is deduced according to the knowledge element model,the accident path and the corresponding probability are defined,and the development direction is defined for the early signs of the accident.At the same time,the intelligent decision of LNG leakage accident is made by scenario matching algorithm,which provides support for early warning.(1)At present,the risk assessment of the discharge arm is limited to a single element or operation,and it cannot fully reveal the dynamic correlation and coupling relationship between the various risk factors of the system.Based on the discharge operation process of the LNG discharge arm,the operation hazard Performance and operability analysis to identify the causes of operational risks.Based on this,a risk assessment model for the discharge operation of the LNG discharge arm based on the "FRAM+HAZOP" is proposed to evaluate the module volatility and risk degree of the discharge operation of the discharge arm.The results show that: F8-LNG unloading module is identified as a key link with high accident incidence.The unstable environment of the wharf and the turbulence of the sea are important risk factors that induce accidents in this operation.(2)Leakage accidents are high-occurring accidents during the operation of the discharge arm.The knowledge meta-model is used to infer the scenarios of the discharge accidents of the discharge arm.Taking liquid LNG leakage as an example during the operation,according to different external environment conditions,the various factors of emergency rescue activities are implemented and the impact is serious,and the scenario of LNG discharge arm leakage accident is deduced,and the positive and negative along the netica software There are a total of four kinds of five accident evolution paths in the development trend,and the respective probability of consequences is 0.44,0.46,0.59,0.67,and 0.68,which is highly consistent with the actual development path and the model accuracy is good.(3)Aiming at the problems of insufficient decision-making data of the existing discharge arm LNG leakage accident,the case description is not detailed and not detailed,and so on,a smart decision-making model of the discharge arm leakage accident based on the case-based reasoning(CBR)is proposed.Taking the leakage of the flange and valve of the LNG discharge arm as an example,firstly,the LNG leakage accident is represented by 8 scenario elements and 3 data types,and the LNG leakage accident case database is established.Secondly,the target case is introduced,and the local similarity SIM and the global similarity SIM of the target case and the source case are calculated by a scenario matching algorithm.In the end,the best source case was selected within the appropriate threshold ?,and the decision-making plan was referenced after being modified around the current situation,which solved the situation of insufficient decision data and realized intelligent early warning decision-making. |
PDF Full Text Request