Research On Market Risk In Coal Trade Between Chinaand Indonesia

Coal is an important energy source related to China's economic development.China is rich in coal resources but requires a large amount of imports.Indonesia is China's largest source of coal imports,but it needs to pay attention to the occurrence of market risks in the process of bilateral coal trade.This paper begins with qualitative and quantitative perspectives,systematically expounds the development trend of China's coal market,the status quo of China's coal trade with Indonesia,and the motivations for the development of trade.Secondly,it uses the PEST analysis framework from political(P),economic(E),society(S)and technology(T)the four aspects of multi-dimensional analysis of the factors affecting the market risk of China-Indonesia coal trade.On this basis,this paper takes market risk as the starting point to construct the comprehensive index system of market risk of China-Indonesia coal trade.Based on the annual data of coal trade between the two countries from 2000 to 2019,the paper uses the time-series principal component analysis method to measure the market risk in the process of the coal trade between China and Indonesia and makes an in-depth analysis.It is found that the market risk of coal trade between the two countries shows a fluctuating downward trend from 2000 to 2019,and the proportion of market risk from large to small is supply and demand risk,foreign exchange risk and price risk.At present,the coal trade between China and Indonesia has changed from the original supply and demand mismatch to the dynamic equilibrium of supply and demand under the fluctuation of price and foreign exchange.Therefore,the corresponding risk prevention and control measures are put forward: we should promote the comprehensive development of bilateral relations,balance the contradiction between coal supply and demand,reduce the impact of foreign exchange risk from multiple ways and improve the ability to resolve the price risk of China's coal market.