Research On The Investment Portfolio Optimization Of Overseas Oil And Gas Projects

The oil and gas industry has very typical characteristics,which are high investment,high risk,high yield and long cycle,the participating companies need to bear huge risks and high capital investment.Since the 1990 s,Chinese oil companies have actively participated in the exploration and development of overseas oil and gas resources.Nowadays,the accumulated deep-seated contradictions and risks have gradually emerged facing the cliff-like drop of international oil prices and the more complex and volatile regional situation.How to scientifically and reasonably select investment projects and carry out investment decisions within limited investment scale,so as to realize the balance of project risk and benefit and value maximization has become an important topic for Chinese oil companies.Based on a thorough investigation of domestic and foreign oil and gas project economic evaluation and investment portfolio optimization methods,this paper establish a multi-objective,multi-level and multi-constraint investment portfolio optimization model that balances risks and benefits,and carry out the following research:(1)Propose six key factors that affect the operating results of overseas oil and gas projects,including investment,cost,oil price,production and preliminary expenditure.Use gray correlation method and analytic hierarchy process to study the impact of each factor on the project value quantitatively.(2)Analyze the ricks faced by overseas oil and gas investment projects,and put forward a quantitative risk assessment method for factors such as political situation,oil price and reserves,etc.(3)Set the ”Project-Asset-Company” three-level investment portfolio optimization structure,establish the investment portfolio model based on integer linear programming optimal theory and realize the optimization solution of genetic algorithm and 0-1 programming algorithm,also the objective function is given which contains net present value,production,net present value index,unit operating cost and unit development cost.(4)Case studies were conducted on 72 investment projects of an oil company in 9 countries,and the optimization results provide a scientific basis for the oil company's investment decision-making.