| Since the 21st century,with the rapid development of industrialization,urbanization and infrastructure construction,China has a huge demand for iron ore.The high mining cost of domestic ore leads to the huge gap that can only be made up by a large number of imports.Therefore,China has become the largest buyer in the world.the international iron ore pricing cycle has changed from "long" to "short",and the pricing method has also changed from the original long-term co pricing to index pricing.Short cycle pricing leads to frequent price fluctuations,coupled with the index's characteristics of "easy to rise and difficult to fall",which makes China face a very unfavorable situation.At the same time,the global iron ore derivatives market is developing rapidly,and China also launched iron ore futures on October 18,2013.The iron ore futures market provides a safe place for iron and steel producers and operators,and it is also committed to providing the function of price discovery for the spot market,so as to provide a choice for the next change of iron ore pricing method.at this stage,how to develop the iron ore futures market and how to fulfill its functions is worth discussing.The daily price of China's iron ore spot price index published by China United Steel Network,The Dalian Commodity Exchange iron ore futures main contract daily contract closing price,daily index daily price,Singapore iron ore swap settlement price are selected as the endogenous variables;and the US dollar index is selected as the exogenous variable.In statistical methods,ADF test,Johansen cointegration test,Granger causality test,VAR model have been used to operate the data.Finally,the following conclusions are drawn:(1)The index function of iron ore futures market at home and abroad is gradually strengthen.(2)Domestic and foreign iron ore futures market has the function of risk aversion.(3)The fluctuation of iron ore spot market has historical memory.(4)China's iron ore futures market has a strong ability to guide the domestic spot market and a weak ability to guide the foreign spot market.(5)At present,the general index still has a strong pricing influence.(6)The maturity of iron ore futures market of SGX is higher than that of China.Corresponding to the conclusion,we suggest:(1)We will improve the capacity of two-way regulation of iron ore supply and demand,and focus on seeking breakthroughs at the supply side.(2)At present,the pricing mode can adopt "contract+spot" comprehensive pricing.(3)Attract more iron ore spot market participants to participate in futures market trading.(4)Steel enterprises should actively participate in the iron ore futures market and improve industrial concentration to deal with potential price fluctuations.The main innovations of this paper are as follows:first of all,by quantifying the impact of China's iron ore futures market on the spot market,using the latest daily data,at the same time,using Granger causality test,vector autoregressive model,this paper analyzes the current situation of iron ore futures market and the development of China's iron ore futures market Iron ore futures market in which the role of objective analysis,at the same time,in the research methods,time series analysis and the introduction of foreign iron ore futures market variables for comparative analysis at home and abroad,trying to make the conclusions more accurate and comprehensive.Secondly,this paper makes an in-depth interpretation of the influencing factors of the domestic spot market price of iron ore,including the reasons for the high production cost of domestic iron ore concentrate and several main factors affecting the price of imported ore;at the same time,it makes a further discussion on the relationship between the iron ore futures and the spot international pricing power,including a review of other international commodity futures markets and their spot prices The relationship between international pricing power and the advantages of China's iron ore futures market in the international iron ore futures market. |
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