The Haze Pollution In China:Based On The Perspective Of Coal Rebound Effect

Severe haze pollution is one of the major environmental problems currently in China.The researchers generally believe that reducing energy consumption by improving energy efficiency is an effective measure to governing haze.However,the improvement of energy efficiency brings about new energy consumption while saving energy,which leads to the elimination of energy savings and the rebound effect.As the main type of energy consumption in China,there may be a rebound effect on coal consumption.The existence of coal rebound effect means that there is an increase in coal consumption,which leads to an increase in haze pollution.As the government may ignore the rebound effect when studying haze pollution and management,the haze pollution caused by the new coal consumption is neglected,and the degree of haze pollution is underestimated,which may affect the haze management.Therefore,it has practical significance to study the haze pollution in China based on the perspective of coal rebound effect.This paper uses provincial panel data in China from 2004 to 2015,and studies the haze pollution from the perspective of coal rebound effect.Firstly,the long-term equilibrium model is used to test the relationships between coal consumption and haze pollution.Secondly,this paper measures the scale of coal rebound effect.On the basis of this,measuring the haze pollution when the rebound effect is zero,then comparing it with the actual haze pollution under the rebound effect in order to investigate the underestimation of haze pollution in the absence of coal rebound effect.Finally,exploring the influencing factors of coal rebound effect,then predicting haze pollution under zero rebound effect by predicting the coal rebound effect in China,and comparing it with the actual haze pollution under the rebound effect to investigate the underestimation of haze pollution when policy planning without considering the coal rebound effect.The results show that:(1)The coal consumption has a significant positive impact on haze pollution,that is,the increase in coal consumption will lead to the deterioration of haze pollution in China.Comparing the relationship between coal,oil,gas and haze pollution,it is found that the impact of coal consumption on haze pollution is most prominent.(2)Under the conditions of technological progress,the value of coal rebound effect in China is significant and large,but the overall trend is downward and there are differences between regions.The rebound effect in the east and west region decline faster than the middle region.(3)The industrial structure(IS),urbanization level(UR),coal price(PR),coal power investment dependence(ID)are significant factors affecting the coal rebound effect,in which IS and ID have a positive effect on coal rebound effect,UR and PR has a negative effect on it.In addition,the existence of coal rebound effect also leads to the underestimation of the haze pollution predicted by policy planning,which may affect the accuracy and overall control of haze management.According to the research results,this paper puts forward targeted policy recommendations on how to weaken coal rebound effect and reduce the underestimation of haze pollution.In the hope that these recommendations can provide reference for the government to control the haze pollution and defend the blue sky.