The Empirical Research On Impact Of Changes In Crude Oil Price On Rmb Exchange Rate

Crude oil is one of the most important resource of energy for human,and its products have an important impact on countless fields.As a non-renewable energy resource,the special production and pricing mechanism of crude oil result in its great price fluctuation,which can affect the global economy from different channels.Studying the various attributes of oil and the way it affects the economy,exploring the establishment of stable price and supply mechanism for oil in the long run.All these has become a hot topic in the financial industry.In recent years,China economy has developed rapidly.However,China's crude oil resource is rare.The consumption of crude oil and the dependence on import oil are rising.The impact of the sharp fluctuations in crude oil prices on China's macroeconomic development has become vital important.As a key international economic variable,the exchange rate plays an extremely important role in the development of the national economy,especially in the foreign economy.Whether crude oil prices can affect the exchange rate through macroeconomic channels is of great significance.This research combines theory with practice,uses quantitative and qualitative research methods,and takes international crude price and RMB exchange rate as research objects,establishes appropriate theoretical models,discusses the impact of the US economy on international oil prices,and the international oil price on RMB exchange rate to conduct comprehensive analysis.The research consists of five parts.The first part is research introduction.It mainly proposes the research background,purpose,the theoretical and practical significance.Literature review about the study at home and abroad also finished in this part.By summarizing the experience of predecessors,the main content of this study is determined,and the technical route is also defined.The second part is the theoretical analysis.Firstly,the study analyzes the price formation and fluctuation mechanism of crude oil,and starts with the special attributes of crude oil to explore the causes and influential factors of price fluctuation.The second is the introduction of the exchange rate and its decision theory,and explores the three channels of the impact on the exchange rate.The third part is the empirical research design.This part introduces VAR model and related test analysis methods,and selects different variables for the impact of changes in crude oil prices on the RMB exchange rate.The fourth part is empirical research analysis.This part is the key content of this research.For the impact of Changes In Crude Oil Price on RMB Exchange Rate,through Eviews10.0,it mainly conducts descriptive statistical analysis and Stationary Test,and establishes VAR model on selected variables.Finally,the study performs Granger Causality Test and Co-integration Test.For the impact of price on RMB exchange rate,in addition to the above analysis and test,the Error Correction Model,Impulse-response Analysis and variance decomposition are also carried out.The fifth part is the conclusions and policy recommendations.By summarizing the theoretical and empirical research results of this study,the conclusions are drawn.In general,this study finds that for 1% increase in US GDP,crude oil prices will fall by 0.787925 %.For 1% increase in US money supply,international crude prices will rise by 0.024805%.In the short term,if crude oil prices rise by 1percentage point,and the RMB exchange rate will fall by 0.02%.In the long run,this number is 1.6%.That is,the rise in crude oil prices will lead to the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate.It is concluded that China needs to strengthen the use of new technologies,explores new energy and so on.Finally,we summarize the research deficiencies,and make plans for future research.