Research On The Default Risk Of Wintime Energy Co.,Ltd.

The bond market and the stock market are the two major components of China's financial system.The bond market has begun to scale after more than 30 years of development.As of August 2019,The total value of bond market capitalization has reached 90 trillion,ranking second in the world,while the market value of the stock was 44 trillion?The scale of the bond market continued to expand,and the financing function continued to increase.However,as China's macro-economy faced greater downward pressure,the financing environment caused by the superposition of financial de-leverage,the credit environment continued to deteriorate.After entering 2018,the credit risk of the Chinese bond market is accelerated,and the credit debt violation is gradually characterized by normalization.Since 2018,more than 80% of the credit debt violation corporates are private enterprises,and Wintime Energy Co.,Ltd is a typical representative of these private enterprises.As a benchmark for private listed companies,Wintime Energy Co.,Ltd.has defaulted on its bonds,highlighting the current situation of low-and medium-credit companies that have fallen into financial difficulties.As of April 31,2019,Wintime Energy's default amount has reached 13.6 billion yuan.Issuers with the same credit characteristics,especially private enterprises,should be vigilant.In this context,researching on the causes of bond defaults and estimating the bond credit risk in advance can effectively improve the decision-making ability of investors and avoid investor losses reasonably,which has significant practical reference value.This paper analyzes the bond defaults by focusing on bond issuers,and analyzes the causes of bond defaults.Through the comparative analysis of KMV model and ZScore model,this paper explores the root causes and early warning methods of corporate default risk,and proposes specific recommendations from the perspectives of investors and bond market.Although the KMV model and the Z-Score model have some inherent limitations,but through the verification of this paper,its early warning effect is still significant.These two models can play an important role in improving credit risk prevention capabilities for the credit bond market investors.