The Modeling And Analysis Of Opinion Evolution And Decision-making Mechanism Based On Bounded Confidence Rule

Opinion dynamics mainly studies the formation and evolution mechanism of opinions held by people about certain events or things.And this process was influenced by decisions between individuals and the external environment in a social system.This thesis proposes a variant Continuous Opinion and Discrete Action(CODA)model based on Heglsemann-Krause(H-K)bounded confidence model,the theory of opinion dynamics and social network.And this theis investigates the impact of individual characteristics,social public policies,and social network structure on the evolution of group opinions and actiong selection outcomes.The main contributions about this thesis as follows:Firstly,this thesis proposes a variant CODA model based on bounded confidence rule.By analyzing the parameters of this variant CODA model,the impact of individual opinion preference and action preference on the evolution of group opinion is analyzed.In addition,this thesis studies the evolution results of group opinions when there is social policy guidance in society.Secondly,this thesis uses the complex network theory to generate a social relationship network,and constructs a opinion-action evolution model based on the social relationship network.The quantitative relationship between the number of steady-state opinion clusters,the proportion of individuals with extreme opinions,and the convergence time of opinions and the parameters of social network structure is analyzed.The simulation results show that the weakening of the cluster structure promotes the emergence of extremist.Finally,this thesis proposes a leader-follower model based on network node degree,and studies the influence of network node degree distribution on group opinion evolution and action selection.The simulation results show that when the leader plays the role of opinion guidance,the opinion communication time of the entire group becomes longer,and the group opinion convergence time also increases.At the same time,there will be more individuals with extreme opinions in the group.