The Calculation And Comparative Study Of TFP Of Different Cities In Shandong Province

Shandong Province's economy is turning to high-quality development,and there are obvious differences in 17 cities.Total factor productivity is the significant index to find the economic growth of a region or country.Its calculation results can help us understand the current economic development situation and future development direction.How to weigh TFP? What are the differences between the results obtained by different calculation methods? What factors affect TFP? Around the above problems,we uses three methods to calculate the TFP of 17 cities in Shandong Province,compares and analyzes the results,and uses system GMM model to analyze the influencing factors,in order to provide favorable suggestions for Shandong Province.Firstly,using the perpetual inventory method and the authoritative data provided by the government,this paper classifies the infrastructure and fixed assets,estimates the capital stock of 17 cities in Shandong Province from 1999 to 2019,lists the corresponding results,and makes a simple analysis of the initial capital stock and regional capital stock.In terms of depreciation rate,according to the fixed asset investment classification and geometric depreciation rate model,the calculated comprehensive depreciation rate is10.10%;In terms of base period stock,taking 1999 as the base period,divide the sum of constant price investment and increased investment growth in the initial year by the sum of growth rate and depreciation rate to obtain the base period capital stock of 17 cities in 1999.The total initial capital stock of 17 cities in Shandong Province is 312.022 billion yuan.Then,the capital stock of 17 cities from 2000 to 2019 is calculated according to the sustainable inventory method,It also makes a simple comparison of the capital stock of three economic circle from 1999 to 2019.Then,the TFP of 17 cities in Shandong Province from 2000 to 2019 is calculated by SR method,DEA-Malmquist and SFA method.From the results of SR,the TFP level of Shandong Province fluctuated from 2000 to 2008,mainly rising,and basically in a downward trend after 2009;In terms of regions,Jining,Liaocheng and Heze have the highest level of total factor productivity,while other cities are low and basically negative.The calculation results of DEA Malmquist method show that the joint promotion of EC and TC makes the TFP rise from 2001 to 2010 and decline after 2011;There are 8 cities with improved total factor productivity,namely Jinan,Dongying,Jining,Rizhao,Laiwu,Dezhou,Liaocheng and Heze.There are 12 cities with improved technical efficiency,and only two cities with improved technology,namely Dongying and Laiwu.The improvement of EC has become the main source of improvement of TFP.The results of stochastic frontier analysis show that the TFP level in Shandong Province decreased year by year from 2000 to 2009,but it was positive.It began to increase negatively in 2010,and the decline gradually increased;In terms of regions,the provincial capital and Jiaodong economic circle is gradually in a saturated state,while the Lunan Economic Circle has just found a road suitable for its own economic development.By comparing the calculation results of three TFP methods,it can be seen that the standard deviation of TFP growth rate calculated by DEA method is the smallest and the fluctuation is stable.Then the frontier analysis method reflects a stronger TFP growth process than DEA.The growth trend of TFP obtained by Solow residual method is roughly similar to that obtained by DEA method.TFP decreased sharply in 2008,which may be the financial crisis have a bad influence on China's economy.In terms of different regions,the TFP of relatively prosperous cities such as Jinan and Qingdao is generally low,while the total factor productivity of cities with low economic development levels such as Zaozhuang and Jining is high.Jinan,Qingdao and other cities need to change force of economic growth.Zaozhuang and other cities should pay attention to high-quality economic development and should not act too hastily.From the perspective of influencing factors,the TFP in the early stage has a positive effect on that stage with a "lag effect".There is a negative correlation between urban density,infrastructure construction and industrial structure and TFP.In the long run,we should limit urban density,optimize infrastructure layout,promote good industrial structure upgrading,and effectively improve the level of TFP;There is a positive correlation between R?D,education,government intervention and TFP.Sufficient investment in R?D and education expenditure can promote the full flow of advanced technology and education resources,so as to improve total factor productivity.Financial intervention should be combined with the "invisible hand" to make good use of the situation and promote high-quality economic development.