Research On Consumption Structure Of Urban Residents In China Based On Several Typical Statistical Models

With the increase in the per capita disposable income and consumption level of the majority of urban residents in my country,the contribution rate of consumption to my country's economic and social growth has gradually increased,which has become an important factor affecting the rapid development of my country's economy.The new crown pneumonia epidemic has an important impact on residents' consumption expenditure.At the same time,the factors affecting the consumption expenditure of urban residents are gradually increasing,the difference in humanistic environment,education level and economic development have made the consumption levels of residents in various provinces different.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the influencing factors of my country's urban residents' consumption level and the differences in consumption structure between provinces and cities.This paper selects the time series data of the six main factors affecting the consumption expenditure of urban residents in my country from 1980 to 2019,the error correction model,distributed lag model and autoregressive model were established to find the main factors affecting consumer expenditure.Regarding the relevant national economic data of the China Statistical Yearbook in 2020,research on the consumption of citizens in 31 regions across the country in 2019,use factor analysis and principal component analysis to reduce the original variables to obtain new comprehensive variables,and reflect the regional characteristics through the common factors.The research conclusions are as follows:1.Through descriptive statistical analysis,it is found that the consumption level of urban residents in my country has increased significantly,but there are significant regional differences and a large gap between the rich and the poor.Among the eight major consumption indicators,consumption of food,tobacco,alcohol,and housing occupy a dominant position.Urban residents are gradually paying attention to the two aspects of consumption for survival and development and spiritual enjoyment.2.Based on co-integration and error correction model,it is found that consumer expenditure in the previous period inhibits household consumption.The disposable income of urban residents in the current period and the previous period promotes residents' consumption,which is the main influencing factor.The price index of the previous period,the interest rate of the current period and the interest rate of the previous period have a negative impact on residents' consumption.The GDP of the previous period has a positive effect on the growth of household consumption.Short-term public financial expenditure will promote household consumption,while long-term public financial expenditure will restrain household consumption.3.Based on the partial adjustment-adaptive expectation comprehensive model research,it is found that household consumption expenditure is affected by the previous two periods of consumption expenditure and current income,at the same time,the fitting effect of this model is better than the fitting effect of the least squares method.4.Based on factor analysis and principal component analysis methods,it is found that Beijing and Shanghai have the highest consumption levels and their consumption structure is balanced.Tianjin,Inner Mongolia,Liaoning,Jiangsu,and Zhejiang have relatively high consumption levels,and their consumption structure is more reasonable.However,Shanxi,Heilongjiang,Guangxi,Hainan,and Tibet have the lowest consumption levels,the consumption index is single.The three regions in my country have different consumption priorities and significant differences in consumption levels.The western region is much lower than the eastern region.Finally,through the summary and prospect,the current consumption situation in our country is summarized and analyzed and suggestions are made,in order to adjust the consumption structure of Chinese residents and increase the income of urban residents,thereby increasing the consumption level of the entire Chinese urban residents,and directly driving the economic development of the entire China.