Statistics Of Personnel Size And ECM Model In Shanghai Universities

On the background for knowledge economy, we use statistical methods to predict Shanghai universities students. Based on historical datas from 1998 to 2013, we use ECM mathematics method to predict the number of Shanghai universities full-time undergraduates and college students, adult education and online education students,the article can provide certain reference basis for recruitment of Shanghai universities’ students in the future.Firstly, we give some introduction about the background of talent’ scale and relevant mathematics theory in the article. Secondly, we use two methods, one is the floating of students method, it is a method to predict the number of full-time undergraduates and college students. To begin with births, they will go to the primary school in six years, then they will go to universities in eighteen years. The other is ECM mathematics method, we use principal component analysis the number of students and four covariates’ values——Shanghai resident population, GDPPC, the second and third industry output, then we fit ECM and predict four covariates’ numerical values in a dozen years, we can deduce the number about full-time undergraduates and college students and graduate students in a dozen years. Based on number value ratio between full-time undergraduates and college students and adult and online education students, we can work out number ratio about the future, then we predict the number of adult education and online education. Finally, we separately take out last year data, last two years data, last three years data to fit ECM, then we compare the results to historical data and obtain the conclusion that ECM prediction is close to reality.