| Infrastructure construction is an important cooperation between China and other countries along the "the Belt and the Road".The Nairobi-Malaba and Mombasa-Nairobi railway in Kenya are typical case.The frequent occurrence of geological disasters along the " the Belt and the Road" brings great threat and loss to the construction and operation of infrastructure.In order to provide reference for geological disaster risk mapping and disaster prevention and mitigation in countries along "the Belt and the Road",this paper takes Kenya as the representative region to carry out risk research on geological disaster and disaster chain,and the main results and conclusions are as follows:(1)Firstly,collected Kenya’s historical disaster data and basic geographic information data includes landform data,geological data,meteorological hydrological data and other factors,describe the general situation of the distribution of various data in Kenya,analysis the main types and the space-time distribution characteristics of geological hazards,the results show that main geological disaster type is landslide in Kenya,The second is mudslide,rainfall is the main inducement of geological disasters.(2)Then,fuzzy hierarchical analysis(F-AHP),logical regression(LR),information content(IV),LR-IV combination and machine learning methods were used to evaluate the sensitivity of rainfall-induced landslides in Kenya.Logical regression model and LR-IV combined model showed the best comprehensive performance in the historical landslide point distribution,sensitive zone area,disaster proportion,area under ROC curve and PR curve,etc.(3)The landslides caused by rainfall may produce type "landslide-mudslide" disaster chain,so further by using the logistic regression model and FLOW-R model combination method,to carry out sensitivity evaluation of the "landslide-mudslide" disaster chain,the results show that landslide originated mainly in side slopes of the valley,and in the valley location to assemble mudslides,then form the disaster chain,This is consistent with the results of visual interpretation based on satellite maps.(5)Finally,evaluate the sensitivity of the "landslide-mudslide" disaster chain in the connecting area of the first phase of Nairobi-Malaba railway and Mombasa-Nairobi railway,and the hidden danger points with high disaster sensitivity are extracted.The results can provide suggestions for disaster prevention and mitigation along the railway.The results of this paper can provide reference for disaster prevention planning and site selection of key infrastructure construction in areas with severe geological disasters along the "the Belt and the Road" initiative.. |
