Research On The Application Of Crime Analysis In The Environment Of Infectious Diseases

In the prevention and control of infectious diseases,improper prevention and control can easily lead to large-scale epidemics.Therefore,it is urgent for us to explore the transmission mode of infectious diseases and discover the epidemic law of diseases,so as to provide scientific reference standards for the formulation formulating preventive measures.In addition,during the epidemic of infectious diseases,infectious diseases do not only affect human health problems,but also affect all aspects of social life and even cause public safety accidents.Infectious diseases are gradually linked with various criminal activities,which will affect the occurrence of different types of cases.Therefore,it is urgent to explore the impact of epidemic diseases on various criminal behaviors.This paper studies the development trend of epidemic infectious diseases.Taking the actual development of new coronary pneumonia in New York City as an example,the data set of new coronary pneumonia officially released by the New York City Department of Health was collected and combined with the data set of new coronary pneumonia in New York City released by Net Ease.On this basis,a susceptible-exposed-infected-death-recoveredmodel(Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Death-Recovered,SEIDR)is proposed for analyzing and predicting epidemic infectious diseases.Firstly,comparing the proposed SEIDR model with the traditional infectious disease model,it proves that the SEIDR model has a better predictive effect.Then the SEIDR model and the L-BFGS optimization method were used to fit the early transmission data of new coronary pneumonia in New York City,and important parameters such as infection rate,latent morbidity rate,disease-related mortality and recovery rate were obtained.Moreover,the value of basic regeneration number R₀ proved that the situation of new coronary pneumonia in New York City was relatively serious.Finally,these parameters were used to predict the future development of new coronary pneumonia in New York City.The data verification shows that the SEIDR model established in this paper can effectively provide scientific quantitative indicators for the prevention and control of epidemic infectious diseases such as new coronary pneumonia in the public security industry in a province of my country.Based on the crime data set officially released by New York City,this paper studies the three representative types of crimes in New York City.First,analyze the historical data of different types of cases and find the time series analysis methods applicable to each of these three types of cases.Robbery and burglary cases suitable for ARIMA model,and felony assault cases are applicable to the quadratic exponential smoothing model.Then the same method was used to simulate and analyze the development trends of the three types of cases affected by epidemic infectious diseases,and to compare the development trend of the three types of cases t not affected by epidemic infectious diseases.Finally,it was found that the development of robbery cases would not be affected by epidemic diseases,but it would have a certain impact on felony assault cases and burglary cases,in which the frequency of felony assault will decrease,while the frequency of burglary cases will increase.The study shows that when epidemic diseases occur again,the scheme in this paper will have a certain theoretical significance for the deployment of crime prevention.