| Population aging has become a common social phenomenon in developed countries and some developing countries in the world.The decrease of birth rate and the extension of average life span lead to a more severe trend of population aging in China.With a large population in China,it is difficult to make rational use of pension service resources,and the contradiction between supply and demand has become increasingly prominent.The decision-making environment of supply and demand of pension services is complex and the cognitive experience of decision-makers is different.Evaluation information is also often fuzzy and uncertain.Probabilistic linguistic term sets can effectively describe the uncertainty of evaluation information.Aiming at the contradiction between supply and demand of pension service,this thesis puts forward the matching decision-making method of supply and demand of pension service under probabilistic linguistic environment,so as to accurately integrate the resources of pension service,and effectively improve the quality of pension service.The main research contents are as follows:(1)According to the main contradiction of supply and demand matching of pension services,the supply and demand matching of pension services is divided into the matching of pension mode selection,the matching of pension service talents and the matching of long-term care.And then the characteristics and evaluation indicator system of each supply and demand problem are studied.(2)In terms of the problem of pension mode selection,a two-sided matching decision-making method of probabilistic linguistic term set based on the peer effect is proposed.Firstly,considering the influence of social relations on decision making,the peer effect is transformed into the peer evaluation.Secondly,a satisfaction function with the lowest expectation and consideration of the sensitivity of the matching subject to satisfaction is proposed to process the information of probabilistic linguistic term set to obtain the matching satisfaction.And then a two-sided matching model with the largest satisfaction is established and the solution method is given.Finally,an example is used to verify the feasibility of this method in dealing with the matching problem of pension mode selection.(3)In terms of the problem of pension service talents supply and demand matching,a two-sided matching decision making method based on probabilistic linguistic term sets and regret theory is proposed.Considering the bounded rationality of decision-makers and the evasion of regret,a utility function for processing probabilistic linguistic term sets based on regret theory is proposed.On this basis,considering the minimum acceptable value of various indicators by decision-makers,a new regret and joy function is used to solve the perceived utility of matching satisfaction as a measure of matching satisfaction;secondly,a two-sided matching model is established based on the characteristics of matching satisfaction and a solution method is given;finally,an example is used to verify the feasibility of this method to deal with the pension service talents supply and demand matching problem.(4)In view of the long-term care matching problem of disabled elderly,a multi-stage two-sided matching decision-making method based on prospect theory for probabilistic linguistic term set is proposed.Firstly,the DS-PLWA operator is selected to aggregate the evaluation information of multi-stage and multi-indicator probabilistic linguistic term set.Secondly,based on prospect theory,an improved value function is proposed to process probabilistic linguistic term set to obtain matching satisfaction.A multi-stage two-sided matching model is established and the solution method is given.Finally,the feasibility of this method to deal with long-term care matching problem is verified by example analysis.(5)A case study of X Smart Pension Service Platform.By analyzing the problems of the platform,applying the methods mentioned in this paper and the existing resources of the platform,solutions are provided for the selection of pension modes,the recruitment of pension service talents,and the long-term care business.In this way,the service quality of the X Smart Pension Service Platform can be improved,so that the platform’s pension service resources can be used more effectively. |
