Research On Risk Evaluation Of Old Village Reconstruction Project Construction Schedule Based On AHP-FUZZY Method

The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China put forward a major strategy of Rural Revitalization.In recent years,all levels have continuously increased support for rural revitalization,vigorously promoted the removal of villages and living together on the basis of respecting the wishes of farmers,and promoted the transformation of old villages.By demolishing the old and disordered villages,new rural communities are planned and constructed to continuously improve rural living environment and farmers'living standards.As an important project to improve people's livelihood,the old village reconstruction project is characterized by complex construction subject,large construction scale,large investment,long construction period and wide interests.The risk factors affecting the construction progress are complex,and the construction schedule management is facing great risk challenges.If the risk factors affecting the progress are not evaluated and analyzed in advance,it will not only increase the unnecessary construction cost,but also lead to safety accidents and mass incidents,which will affect the smooth progress of the whole project.As the core content of schedule risk management and control,construction schedule risk assessment can effectively identify the actual progress risk level of the project,and provide scientific basis for its further control.Therefore,it is very important and necessary to study the construction schedule risk assessment of the old village reconstruction project.Through the theoretical research on the risk management and risk evaluation of the construction progress of the project,combined with the related content of the old village reconstruction project,the necessity of the risk evaluation of the construction progress of the old village reconstruction project is analyzed and elaborated.On this basis,considering the complexity and diversity of risk factors in the old village reconstruction project,this paper introduces Hall's three-dimensional structure idea to establish the risk factor identification system from the perspective of system integration,and selects the key risk factors through the principal component analysis method,so as to realize the comprehensiveness and systematicness of risk factor identification.The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to evaluate the construction progress risk,which effectively solves the problem that the risk indicators of old village reconstruction projects are mostly qualitative indicators.Organize part of the project participants to score the index weight,and select the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)which fully reflects the experts'opinions.At the same time,the ln((9/9)e)?ln((1/(17))e)scale is selected to improve and perfect the traditional analytic hierarchy process(AHP),and the risk evaluation model of construction progress of old village reconstruction project based on improved AHP-Fuzzy is constructed.Finally,the model is applied to the actual case analysis,and the main risk factors affecting the construction progress are obtained by using the evaluation model.Reasonable and effective prevention and control suggestions and countermeasures are put forward for the risk of affecting the construction progress of the old village reconstruction project,so as to provide help for the smooth and orderly implementation of the old village reconstruction.