The Impact Of Population Migration On The Transmission Dynamics Of The New Coronavirus

The novel coronavirus pneumonia is a global pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus.The novel coronavirus disease has been named COVID-19 by the World Health Organization(WHO)on February 11,2020.COVID-19 is present in a world where populations are closely connected.As more and more people go out for work,education and travel reasons,the scope of population migration has become wide.Especially the population movement of tourists and businessmen,which is the main driving force for the spread of the epidemic around the world.The spread of the epidemic has had a huge impact on global transportation,tourism,entertainment and financial markets.Based on the current understanding of the new coronavirus,this article establishes a new coronavirus transmission dynamics model,focusing on the impact of population migration on the transmission dynamics of the new coronavirus,combined with the dynamics model to do a lot of mathematical analysis,and prove the balance point stability,and the use of actual case data in specific provinces to draw meaningful conclusions about population mobility,which provides a strong theoretical basis for the specific plan for resuming work and production.In chapter 1,we introduce the significance of research on the new coronavirus,the development of domestic and foreign research and the main research content of this article.In chapter 2,a model of COVID-19 with constant input and exponential output is established.Then we calculate the basic reproduction number using the next-generation matrix method and construct the Lyapunov function.At last,we theoretically proves the global stability of disease-free balance point and endemic disease balance point.In chapter 3,we study the dynamic model of the new coronavirus transmission in Guangdong and Hunan provinces.We study the dynamic model of the new coronavirus transmission in Guangdong and Hunan provinces.Taking Guangdong Province and Hunan Province as examples respectively,we established three stages of dynamic models before,during and after the Spring Festival,and calculated the basic reproduction number in each stage.We used the actual data released by the Health Commission to estimate the parameters and draw a 95%confidence interval to verify the correctness of the model.Finally,we discuss the results of the impact of population migration in and out of Guangdong and Hunan provinces on the spread of the local new coronavirus.We found that after the Spring Festival,most parts of China begin to return to work.If too many immigrants move to Guangdong Province to work,there is a risk of a second outbreak of the epidemic.The relevant departments should take measures to control the immigration of Guangdong Province.In chapter 4,we study the impact of population on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 under different migration patterns.The patch dynamics model is established,and the basic reproduction number of each patch and the whole is calculated in detail.This chapter conducts a numerical simulation of the infectious disease model in a two patch environment.Taking Shanghai,Suzhou,Changsha and Yueyang as examples,the risk of transmission is evaluated and conclusions of practical significance are drawn under different population migration patterns.When the population migrates between high-risk and low-risk areas,the immigration of foreign population should be strictly controlled in the high-risk areas,while the low-risk areas are suitable for returning to work and production to attract the population to move in;when the population migrates between the low-risk and low-risk areas,population migration has little impact on the risk of epidemic transmission and the two places are ultimately low-risk areas and the population between the two places can be close.At this time should return to work,restore economic income.In chapter 5,we summarize the content of this article and the outlook for future research.