Chinese Dairy Cows Brucellosis Dynamics Modeling And Prevention And Control Measures

Brucellosis is a serious zoonosis and a signifcant cause of reproductive losses in animals,which is a bacterial disease caused by members of the genus Brucella. The main disoperationof brucellosis is abortions, infertility and orchitis. During the200countries and regions in theworld, there are more than170places where exist human and livestock brucellosis. WorldHealth Organization(WHO) classifed brucellosis as class B infectious diseases. Most of theprovinces (cities, areas) have diferent degrees of brucellosis occurrence and popular in China,especially the16provinces (cities, areas)in the north of China. In fact, all the provinces havespread to diferent extent about livestock brucellosis. In our country, there are350millionpeople who are under the threat of brucellosis. While the epidemic area are more than1200.Dairy cattle brucellosis, which has a huge impact on the economic development of dairycow breeding industry, not only has an efect on public health, but also threatens human’slife vastly. At present, few literature makes use of the dynamical model to study the dairycattle brucellosis in China. In order to explore efective control and prevention measures,this paper makes the following researches:1. Particularly making Jilin province as an example, the annual number of the positivereactors of dairy cattle is only34cows in1987, and went up to2470cows in2005. Basedon the brucellosis transmission mechanism, considering the spread of the bacteria around inthe environment and the situation of the brucellosis infection in Jilin province, we proposean SEIV dynamical model with outer importation, eliminated due to illness, sterilizationand disinfection to describe transmission of brucellosis about dairy cattle in this part. Wecalculate the basic reproduction number R0and prove that the equilibria are globally stable.Moreover, combining with the real data about the transmission between dairy cattle of nearly20years in Jilin province, we estimate the parameter values in the system with least-squares,verify the rationality of the model. Through sensitivity analysis, we could evaluation theexisting dairy cattle brucellosis prevention and control measures. Then we show the trendof the infected number. According to the prediction of the next30years, we can conclude that the disease will be persist if we just take existing measures. If culling, sterilizing anddecreasing the number of outer importing are used together, dairy cattle brucellosis will bewell controlled.2. Considering that the patients in incubation period with infectious to establish SEIVdynamic model. Outer importation and other control measures are still taken into account.Ignoring the proportion was born within the population. We use spectral radius to calculatethe basic reproduction number R0. By constructing proper Lyapunov function and LaSellainvariant set principle to analyze and prove that the disease-free equilibrium and the uniquepositive equilibrium point are global asymptotic stability.3. In combination with the practical situation of the main dairy cattle feeding provinces,we analysis the disease on the standard incidence cases. By analyzing the dynamic model, thebasic reproduction number R0can also be obtained. At last, we prove that the disease-freeequilibrium is global asymptotic stability and the system has the unique positive equilibriumpoint. By numerical simulation, the phase diagram between susceptible S and infective Ican show us the uniqueness of the positive equilibrium point.