| Meteorology and environmental changes play an important role in our daily lives,which are related to life safety,production development and life prosperity.To explore the relationship between meteorology environmental factors and sensitive diseases is very important to prevent sensitive diseases and protect people's health,especially guiding for the healthy development of children.Lanzhou is located in the geometric center of China's mainland and as an important transportation hub in Northwest of china.Studies the relationship between meteorological environmental factors and childhood asthma then establishes related disease prediction models in this area is very important to disease prevention.Four years meteorological observation data,environmental data,and outpatient data of childhood asthma provided by three Grade-A hospitals from January 2014 to December 2017 in Lanzhou are used in this article.First,the incidence characteristics and differences of childhood asthma in Lanzhou are statistical analyzed.The change characteristics of meteorological factors and environmental factors on different time scales also analyzed.Then the correlations between the incidence of childhood asthma and the meteorological and environmental factors are calculated.The non-linear model is used to quantitatively evaluated the lag-response relationship between meteorological environmental factors and the asthma in children,and analyzes the influence of meteorological and environmental factors on the onset of childhood asthma.Finally,the multiple stepwise regression and BP neural network prediction methods are used to establish a time series prediction model of childhood asthma onset,and test the prediction results.The main results are as follows:(1)The incidence of childhood asthma in Lanzhou from 2014 to 2017 is mainly allergic childhood asthma patients,and the average number of visits for boys per day is significantly higher than that for girls.4-year-old children have the most frequent visits to asthma,with an incidence rate of 5.45/10,000,followed by 5-year-old and3-year-old children.The average daily visits of preschool children are higher than those of other age groups.The summer and autumn seasons with a lot of dust,bacteria,virus and other exposure factors are increased incidence of childhood asthma.Therefore,attention should be paid to the occurrence of childhood asthma on summer season,especially August and September.(2)Average temperature,wind speed,daily range of temperature,PM2.5 and PM10 are the main meteorological and environmental factors affecting the incidence of childhood asthma in Lanzhou.The overall effect of average temperature on childhood asthma is basically an inverted“V”shape.As the average temperature rises,the relative risk first rises and then decreases.The total children's relative risk is relatively large in the range of-7.8°C to-4.8°C.The overall effect of boys and girls are agreement that of the total children,but the relative risk of girls to the average temperature is higher than that of boys.Dry air(RH?14%)is more harmful to children's asthma.The overall response curve between the daily range of temperature and the onset of childhood asthma is"J"type,and the relative risk of childhood asthma is higher if the daily range of temperature is greater than 20.6°C.When PM2.5is greater than 35?g/m3,the risk of childhood asthma increases with the concentration of PM2.5 increases.(3)The temperature on the onset of childhood asthma in Lanzhou reflects the lag effect.A low temperature lag of 2 days has a greater influence on children's asthma,and a high temperature lag of 1 day has a greater influence on children's asthma.(4)The total number of incidences of children is the most on average temperature is 15?and humidity is 60%,boys and school-age children at high temperature and humidity,girls at high temperature and humidity of 60%,infants and young children suffer the most on low temperature and early school are affected by high temperature.The interaction between daily range and humidity shows that the humidity in 60%has most.Severe cooling or continuous high temperature will affect the onset of childhood asthma.Girls are mainly affected by high temperature,infants and preschool are mainly affected by low temperature,and high temperature occurs frequently in school age.The interaction between average temperature and PM2.5shows that the incidence of childhood asthma increases with the increase of PM2.5,while infants and young children are mainly affected by temperature.(5)Considering the lag effects of meteorological and environmental factors,the fitting effect of the multiple stepwise regression model is more stable than that of only considering the meteorological and environmental factors of one day.On the whole,the BP neural network model is better than the fitting prediction effect of the multiple stepwise regression model.In short,this article discusses the meteorological factors and environmental factors related to the incidence of childhood asthma in Lanzhou.Provide references for researchers engaged in the study of childhood asthma,and also provide a scientific basis for the travel and health of children in Lanzhou. |
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