Analysis Of The Spatio-temporal Distribution And Correlation Characteristics Of PM_2.5 And Incidence Rate Of Lung Cancer In China

PM_2.5,as an air pollutant mainly derived from human activity emissions,is the primary pollutant of air pollution incidents in China,and the long-term exposure of which cause respiratory diseases that threat human health.Using spatial analysis method to combine ground-level PM_2.5 concentration,PM_2.5 emission and lung cancer incidence in China,this study focuses on its spatio-temporal correlation characteristics,which is of great significance for effective prevention and control of PM_2.5 pollution and the effective intervention of lung cancer.Long time series analysis,Standard Deviation Ellipse,Trend analysis,Spatial Autocorrelation analysis and Grey Relation analysis are used in this paper.Firstly,the spatio-temporal distribution and changes of PM_2.5 concentration data and emission data in China from 2000 to 2014 are studied.Then,we compared the concentration and emission data with the incidence rate of lung cancer in 2014 to explore the impact of long time PM_2.5 exposure on human health.The main research contents and results are as follows:(1)The spatio-temporal characteristics of ground-level PM_2.5 concentration and PM_2.5 emission from 2000 to 2014 in China were analyzed.From the perspective of space,high concentration and high emission are mostly concentrated in the east of Hu Huanyong line,which has a good consistency.However,due to the differences of topography,climate and other factors,there are some counties with“low emission and high pollution”and“high emission and low pollution”,which reflects that in addition to effective control of pollution sources,local conditions should be considered with efficient measures.From the perspective of time series,PM_2.5 concentration showed a trend of first rising and then falling,and there was a turning point in 2007 at the national level.PM_2.5 emission did not increase significantly as the growth of GDP but remained stable on the whole,with the proportion of land area greater than 4200kg/km² only increasing by 0.45%,reflecting the effective control of air pollutant emissions in recent years.(2)The spatio-temporal variation characteristics of PM_2.5 ground-level concentration and PM_2.5 emission in China were analyzed by standard deviation ellipse method and trend analysis method.From the method of Standard Deviation Ellipse analysis,PM_2.5 concentration ellipse and PM_2.5 emission ellipse are consistent with the population economic distribution in azimuth and coverage area.However,the larger the area of the concentration ellipse is,the closer the long axis is to the east-west direction,with about 17°difference.The central position of concentration ellipse and emission ellipse has the same trajectory characteristics with time,but the trajectory is different in time.From the perspective of trend analysis,the trend of PM_2.5 concentration and emission is not completely consistent in the east of Hu Huanyong line.In some areas,the emission decreased,but the concentration increased.(3)The spatial correlation between PM_2.5 concentration and emission from 2000to 2014 and incidence rate of lung cancer in 2014 was analyzed at county scale.The results showed that the correlation between PM_2.5 concentration and emission was higher at county scale,R² was about 0.63,and the incidence rate of lung cancer was close to 0.43.PM_2.5 concentration,emission and lung cancer showed spatial aggregation characteristics.The aggregation of the three had good spatial consistency in the Yangtze River Basin,Huaihe River Basin,Pearl River Delta,Beijing Tianjin Hebei and other places.However,in addition to the high PM_2.5 pollution areas,the high incidence areas of lung cancer were also serious in Northeast China and Northeast Inner Mongolia,which reflected the complexity of pathogenic factors of lung cancer.(4)Taking Beijing,Shanghai and Guangzhou as examples,the association between PM_2.5 and lung cancer was studied based on different genders.From the perspective of statistical analysis,the incidence rate of lung cancer in the center of Beijing and Shanghai is low,but the incidence rate of lung cancer in Yuexiu and Liwan District of Guangzhou is higher.As for the gender analysis,the incidence rate of lung cancer in Guangzhou is significantly higher than that in male incidence rate in Beijing and Shanghai.The incidence rate of lung cancer in Beijing,Shanghai and Guangzhou is not significantly different.The results showed that the incubation period of PM_2.5 of male and female in Beijing was 8 years,that of male and female in Shanghai was 4years and 8 years,and that of male and female in Guangzhou was 4 years.The main features and contributions of this study are as follows:on the one hand,the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of PM_2.5 ground-level concentration and emission are systematically analyzed,which is helpful to understand the pollution information reflected by these two sets of data and carry out pollution control scientifically and reasonably.On the other hand,the spatial and temporal association analysis of lung cancer incidence rate and long time series PM_2.5 concentration and emission in counties nationwide will help to understand the risk of lung cancer exposure in China and provide reference for relevant health geography and preventive medicine research.