Research On Carbon Emission In Zheng-bian Integration Area Based On LUCC

Land use / cover change(LUCC)is an important manifestation of human-land system interaction and an important and frontier subject in the research of environmental change.And the carbon balance caused by it also is the focus of scholars' attention.In this paper,the area of different land types from 2005 to 2018 in ZhengBian integrated area was extracted by remote sensing image,and the carbon emission of each land use type was calculated by using the method of carbon emission coefficient.And the database of land use and carbon emissions was established.Firstly,the paper analyzes the land use change and carbon emissions in Zheng-Bian integrative area,and on this basis,discusses the driving mechanism and future trend of land-use carbon emission.The results are as following:(1)Land use / cover change in Zheng-Bian integrated area from 2005 to 2018 has the characteristics of diversification and complexity in space,and it has the characteristics of “cultivated land retrogression and construction land advance” in general.(2)The land use / cover types in Zheng-Bian integrative area is dominated by the cultivated land and the construction land.The cultivated land occupies an absolute position,and the proportion of the water area and the forest land is less.Both of them have the characteristics of decreasing first and then rising.The proportion of unused land and grassland area is the smallest,and the proportion of unused land area is not only the smallest,but also the most volatile.(3)According to the dynamic degree of single land use type,the change directions and change speeds of different land use types are different.The dynamic degree of single land use type of cultivated land changed greatly.However,the dynamic degree of land use type in three stages of woodland decreased first and then increased.And the value of grassland area showed an increasing trend,and the growth rate was also relatively fast.The change trend of land use dynamic degree in the three stages of water area is similar to that of forest land,showing the trend of decreasing first and then increasing,but the increasing speed of land use type decreases in the later stage.The area of construction land increased most rapidly from 2010 to 2015,and the expansion of its area was accompanied by the decrease of cultivated land and grassland area.The single dynamic degree of land use types in the three stages of unused land was-16.677,0,0,respectively.The comprehensive degree index of land use and the index of ecological risk of land use showed an upward trend in Zheng-Bian integration area from 2005 to 2018.The index of comprehensive degree of land use changed little between 3.0542 and 3.1712,and the index of ecological risk of land use changed greatly,ranging from 0.3925 to 0.4690.(4)From 2005 to 2018,the land-use carbon emission in Zheng-Bian integrative area was on the rising,and the annual growth rate was as high as 5.59%.It has the characteristics of rising linearly from 2005 to 2014,then rising sharply from 2014 to 2015,and slowly rising from 2015 to 2018.Among them,carbon source also has the characteristics of continuous increasing,and its change trend mainly depends on the change of construction land area.While the change of carbon sink has the characteristics of three stages,that is,2005-2009,2010-2014 and 2015-2018.There is little change in every stage,but there is a significant difference in the interphase stages.(5)The influence of different land use types on the total carbon emission was different.The order of the influence degree was: construction land > water area > woodland > cultivated land > grassland > unused land.The driving effects of grassland area,woodland and cultivated land on total land-use carbon emissions is almost similar.(6)The result of GM(1,1)prediction model shows that the carbon emissions by land use from 2019 to 2028 will continue the growth rate and change trend of the existing land-use carbon emissions.By 2028,the land-use carbon emissions will reach 2648447.58 tons,with an average annual growth rate of 18%,which is 3.89 times higher in 2005 and 3.6 times in 2018.