Research On The Influence Of Interest Rate Change On Stock Industry Index In China

This paper starts from Marx's interest rate theory and virtual capital theory.Based on the perspective of different industries,under the background of interest rate liberalization,this paper specifically analyzes the influence of China's main interest rates on ten industry indexes,including energy industry,raw material industry,industrial industry,optional consumption,major consumption,medicine and health care,financial real estate,information technology,telecommunications,public utilities,etc.The interest rates include the deposit base interest rate,the loan base interest rate,the rediscount interest rate,the Shanghai 7-day interbank offered rate,the weighted average interest rate of the national interbank offered rate,and the 7-day national debt repurchase rate.The data selected were from January 2008 to October 2018,approximately 11 years.The paper carried out the Stability test,Cointegration test and Granger causality test.The logical relationship between interest rate and stock industry index is judged by impulse response analysis and prediction variance decomposition.Finally,the error correction model is used for equilibrium analysis.Domestic and foreign scholars' researches on interest rate change and stock industry index change include two aspects,which are significant and insignificant,among which the significant influence occupies the majority.This article innovatively refines interest rates and the industry,and the interest rate is negatively correlated with the different stock industry indices in most cases.However,there are exceptions in individual industries.For example,the medical and health industry index and the national interbank lending weighted average interest rate change in the same direction.The energy industry index,the financial real estate industry index and the 7-day government bond repo rate changed in the same direction.The constant term of the main consumption index and the interest rate regression equation is negative.At the same time,this paper explores the interaction between interest rates and the reaction of industry indices to interest rates.Combined with various influencing factors of the development of the entity in the industry,the direct and indirect mechanisms for the change of interest rate to the index of the stock industry index are explored.Based on Marx's political economy theory,through the quantitative analysis of empirical equations and the qualitative analysis of economic cases,combined with the development of financial markets such as stocks and bonds in China,this paper proposes effective measures to improve the marketization of interest rates:China needs to gradually and orderly liberalize the market-oriented pricing of interest rate and build a long-term guiding mechanism of interest rate on stock index.The government should improve the interest rate control mechanism and enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy on the stock market.The central bank needs to improve the multi-level capital market and give full play to the role of interest rate mechanism in regulating industrial development.Regulators should realize the effective combination of interest rate policy and supervision mechanism to prevent interest rate risk.Investors must strengthen vocational training and learning assessment from the perspective of interest rate to improve the entry threshold.