| Global warming has become an indisputable fact,and its impact is multifaceted.Guangdong Province is located at the southermmost part of China,and the annual mean temperature is as high as 21.8 degree.Guangdong has suffered more frequent extreme weather events in recent years as a result of climate change.In order to provide scientific support for developing appropriate adaptation policies to protect human communities,agriculture systems,and ecosystems from climatic changes,this research will be focused on investigating future temperature changes in Guangdong Province through a stepwise cluster analysis method.We first calibrate and validate the proposed coupled dynamical and statistical model to establish the downscaling relationship between large-scale atmospheric variables and local surface variable(temperature).Then the projections for future mean,maximum,and minimum temperature through the validated model are developed under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.Finally,we analyzed the temperature changes in Guangdong Province over three time slices including the 2030s(2026-2045),2050s(2046-2065),and 2080s(2076-2095),and analyze them from annual,monthly and seasonal scales.The forecast results are compared with the Guangdong Climate Change Assessment Report to better understand the climate change in Guangdong Province.The results indicate that there is a consistent increasing trend of the annual mean,maximum and minimum temperature from the 2030s to the end of this century(i.e.the 2080s)for all the six selected weather stations in Guangdong Province.The averaged warming-up speed in Guangdong under RCP4.5 is about 0.22? per 10 years,while under RCP8.5 is about 0.34? per 10 years.The increase of the mean temperature in winter is much larger(3-4?)than that in summer(-0.2?),and the warming trend is similar to the Guangdong Climate Change Assessment Report.The results of this study can provide scientific bases for decision makers. |
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