Assessment On Vulnerability Assessment And Influencing Factors Of Agricultural Drought Study In China

With the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization in various countries,the climate has changed dramatically and become more and more intense,causing frequent natural disasters all over the world,and posing serious threats to social life and agricultural production.China is a country that frequently suffers from drought,which has caused immeasurable losses to China's agricultural production and grain output because of its wide range,long duration,serious damage and severe drought.Therefore,to understand the characteristics of agricultural drought in China and analyze the drought bearing mechanism;The vulnerability to agricultural drought in China was evaluated regionally and the contribution of each influencing factor was analyzed.It is of great significance to reduce the vulnerability of drought,ensure food security,maintain social stability,promote production and life,and realize sustainable development of agriculture.Based on China's agricultural drought vulnerability as the research object,through collecting data,combining with the relevant theory,on the basis of literature review and analysis of the actual situation of China's agricultural drought,from two aspects of drought and resilience of the sensitivity of selected 12 indicators,respectively is: the agricultural share of GDP,multiple crop index,the rural population,the average temperature,sunshine hours and rainfall,forest coverage rate,per capita net income of rural residents,authors grain output per capita,per capita GDP,effective evaluation and agricultural fertilizer quantity per unit area;Therefore,the evaluation index system of agricultural drought vulnerability is established.Entropy weight method and weighted comprehensive scoring method were used to calculate the degree of agricultural drought vulnerability in each province.The degree of agricultural drought vulnerability in China in the past 40 years was divided into different vulnerable areas by K-value clustering,which were low vulnerability,mild vulnerability,moderate vulnerability and severe vulnerability.Arc GIS was used to show the classification of agricultural drought vulnerability in China.Based on the contribution model,this paper analyzes the influencing factors and degree of agricultural drought vulnerability in China,and puts forward some countermeasures to reduce the vulnerability of agricultural drought in China.The results show that: 1.With the passage of time,the vulnerability degree of agricultural drought in different parts of China has changed significantly.From 1978 to 2018,the vulnerability of agricultural drought in China showed a decreasing trend,with the number of low and mildly vulnerable cities increasing,and the number of severely vulnerable cities decreasing.At the same time,there's a trend that highly vulnerable cities has been converted to mildly vulnerable cities while mildly vulnerable cities has been converted to less vulnerable cities.2.China is divided into six geographical regions,and the impact factors of agricultural drought vulnerability are analyzed.The results show that the contribution of resilience index in central and eastern China is more than 50%,and the degree of agricultural drought vulnerability is relatively low.The contribution of the sensitivity index in the southwest and northwest regions is up to 75%,and the vulnerability degree of agricultural drought is relatively high.Among them,the multiple-crop index,the proportion of the rural population,the forest coverage rate and the per capita GDP index contributed more.The contribution of per capita grain yield index is the least.Based on the above conclusions,the following suggestions are proposed to reduce the vulnerability of agricultural drought in China:1.Optimize the structure of agricultural planting and realize the rationalization of land use;2.Speed up afforestation and improve the ecological environment;3.Improve irrigation methods and improve water resource utilization efficiency;4.Optimize the industrial structure and promote the transfer of rural population to cities;5.Accelerate economic development and improve pre-disaster resilience and post-disaster resilience.This study is of guiding significance for understanding the vulnerability of agricultural drought in China and providing measures for drought resistance and mitigation.