Case Study Of Hz High-tech Enterprise Value Evaluation Based On FCFF And Fuzzy B-S Model

In the context of China's rapid economic development,high-tech industry is rising rapidly.At the same time,the state has issued a series of positive policies to support the development of the industry.In this strong economic background,the high-tech industry has gradually become an important support for the national economy,and the rapid development of the industry has also become the focus of investors.External investors focus on the development ability and profitability of enterprise management,and targeted investment or mergers and acquisitions.In order to expand the scale of production and operation,internal managers need to master the specific development strategy of the enterprise Development,these economic activities will involve the value evaluation of enterprises,whether the rapid and effective evaluation of enterprise value,plays a vital role in high-tech enterprises.This paper selects Hz high-tech enterprises for analysis,and explores the methods that can accurately and reasonably evaluate the enterprise value,so as to further promote the development of the asset appraisal industry.This paper summarizes and analyzes the previous scholars' research methods for the evaluation of high-tech enterprises,and puts forward a new evaluation model to evaluate the value of high-tech enterprises.Firstly,this paper analyzes the development trend and financial situation of Qingdao Hz Information Technology Co.,Ltd.,which is the basis for selecting evaluation methods and predicting future earnings.Secondly,it analyzes the problems existing in the original evaluation methods in evaluating the value of high-tech enterprises,and puts forward solutions to the problems.Thirdly,it builds an evaluation model suitable for high-tech enterprises according to the previous analysis,That is FCFF and fuzzy B-S real option combination model,FCFF model predicts the entity value of the enterprise,fuzzy B-S Option model predicts the potential option value of the enterprise,adding the two together is the overall value of the enterprise;finally,the enterprise value evaluated by the model is compared with the original evaluation results.There are several advantages when applying the combination model to the value evaluation of high-tech enterprises: first,when using the income method to evaluate the enterprise value,we must consider the industry development,enterprise characteristics and other factors of the enterprise,and improve the traditional evaluation method to make the evaluation results more accurate and reasonable;second,the real option model has more intangible assets in the evaluation It can dynamically quantify the potential value brought by the uncertainty factors,and get the complete enterprise evaluation value;third,after introducing the fuzzy mathematics theory,the fuzzy real option model evaluates the most likely interval of enterprise value rather than the specific value,which makes the evaluation results more scientific and reasonable,and can provide reference for enterprises Business managers provide more reasonable decision-making reference.According to the case study,the following conclusions can be drawn: the traditional income method only considers the risk of high-tech enterprises from the perspective of discount rate.This method only measures the enterprise risk from one aspect,but it can not predict the enterprise risk comprehensively.In addition,the discount rate is used in each period of cash flow discount,but the variability of risk in the income period is ignored,The above two points show that the enterprise valuation obtained by the traditional income method is not accurate,which will affect the decision-making of enterprise managers;however,the enterprise value evaluated by combining FCFF and fuzzy B-S model is more accurate,because FCFF model evaluates the entity value of the enterprise's existing assets,and fuzzy B-S Option Pricing model evaluates the potential option value of the enterprise,but the B-S Option model does not meet the requirements The parameters and information of B-S Option model have great uncertainty,and fuzzy theory just does not need accurate data.Therefore,the combination of fuzzy mathematics theory and B-S Option model can make the final option value in the most possible range.This evaluation model can provide better decision-making suggestions for enterprise managers.