Empirical Analysis On Effects Of High Speed Railway Development On China's Industry Structure

This paper estimates the degree to which city-level industry structure in China is influenced by that of the nearby areas by using spatial autoregressive model.In comparison with the previous studies,dynamic spatial weight matrix based on the high-speed railway distance data is constructed by Dijkstra's algorithm in Python.And spillover effect is analyzed by year.The empirical result shows that there exists a significant spatial spillover effect on the industry structure and the impact becomes stronger with the development of high-speed railway network.Then we create the 1-hour and 2-hour city circles,where the result indicates more obvious impact in 2-hour city circle than in 1-hour city circle.Hypothesis for this is that only long-distance transfer relies on the new transportation.Robustness and heterogeneity of the model are tested as well.In this process,we find that spillover effect is more significant in less developed area such as the west,the central and the northeast.Furthermore,to clearly identify the impact of high-speed railway,we develop and apply a generalized SAR model which considers the endogeneity and application of multiple weighting matrices at the same time.The estimation and method of the new model are presented later.And sample application result of the generalized model still supports our initial conclusion that high-speed railway positively helps industry structure upgrading even with adjacency effect controlled.Finally,this paper provides suggestions for regional development according to the empirical study.