| The effect of climate change and land use have some influence on the Keriya river basin,which directly affects the distribution of water resources in the region This is Paper takes the Keriya River Basin as a research site connected to the north of Kunlun Mountain and ends at the southern source of the Taklamakan Desert.The local climate is cold and warm in the south.This particular geographic and climatic situation makes it particularly important that the hydrological process and the water consumption of the Keriya river for the development of the region research.On the basis of the meteorological and hydrological data of 1999-2015 and the four land use maps of 1985,1995,2005 and 2015 SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)model is used to determine the hydrological surface process of the Keriya River Basin.simulate.The Development of artificial oases and natural oases as well as the effects of climate change and land use on runoff in the lower part of the Keriya River basin The The results are as follows:(1)The area of the artificial oasis in the Keriya River Basin is showing an increasing trend.The oasis is in a stable situation from 1985 to 1995,with a change of0.93km~2;the area of the artificial oasis has a significant increase from 1995 to 2005,with a change of 169.4km~2,while the rate of growth of the artificial oasis from 2005 to2015 is slowed,with an average annual growth of 5.39km~2.In the artificial oasis,the change in the cultivation area is most marked,from 270.52km~2in 1985 to 480.55km~2in2015,an increase of 210.03km~2.The change in residential land was the largest,with an overall increase of 14.2km~2from 2005 to 2015.(2)The development of other soil types in the Keriya River Basin is as follows:Greenland and forest areas are increasing,and the area of change of low-coverage grassland is the largest,with the total increase of 2787.1km~2from 2005 to 2015Shrubbery.Shrubbery water surface,glacier snow cover,marshland,salt-rich alkali and desert areas decreased,the most significant of which was the reduction of desert area,with the reduction of 3390.7km~2between 2005 and 2015 taken place overall.(3)Based on the SWAT model,the hydrological surface process of the Keriya river Simulated.The Results show that the SWAT model is effective and feasible to simulate the Keriya River Basin and the simulation results fully meet the evaluation criteria The Simulation results show,the average annual precipitation is 131.54mm,the average annual evapotranspiration 71.51mm,the average annual basic discharge 6.78mm and the average annual storage capacity 24.21mm.(4)The climate in the study area is developing towards warm and humid,which increases the flow of the Keriya River Basin,which directly affects the distribution and management of regional water resources as well as the consumption and use of water resources The the average annual temperature in the study area is 11.96?;however,since the 1990s it has gradually increased ht.The average precipitation and annual sunsets showed a general trend that reached the highest value in 2011-2018,74.52mm and 2948.08h.(5)The total amount of agricultural water consumption in the study area is increasing,from 20.48×10~8m~3in 2000 to 38.67×10~8m~3in 2015,an increase of 18.19×10~8m~3in 15 years.In 2000 was the green water consumption of cotton 7.17×10~8m~3,and in 2015 was the green water consumption of cotton 16.11×10~8m~3,which applies to41.67%of the total green water consumption of the study area.(6)The increase in forest and residential areas reduces evapotranspiration and reduces the rate of drainage to.The Increase in cultivation areas and green areas leads directly to an increase in the Water consumption.The water and marsh area is reduced,leading to a reduction in the drainage.This study shows that the changeover depends largely on the local actual geographical environment and the more intensive human activities,the greater impact on the Departure.The Flow in the upper layers of the Keriya River Basin increased,but the flow in the lower area increased due to the influence the change of the artificial oasis in the middle area. |
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