The Research Of Group For Regulating Strategy Of Sales Channel

Based on the entire stock market,this paper focuses on research macroeconomic variables that would affect whole stock market.In general,the macroeconomic variables that could affect stock price are economic growth,interest rate policy,inflation,financial policy,currency policy,balance of international payments and exchange rate.This paper would pick the most representative financial data for further analysis on their affection on stock price.The financial data used in this paper was picked form the first quarter of 2000 to the third quarter of 2017,including shanghai composite index,money supply,financial expenditure,interest rate,exchange rate,value of exports,customer price index(CPI)and gross domestic product(GDP).All these data was analyzed by VAR model and ARMA model.For horizontal stationary series(GDP,financial policy and exchange rate),using multiple linear regression method research based on ARMA model.For integrated of order one sequence(money supply,interest rate,value of exports and CPI),using VAR model alone with Johansen cointegration test,Granger causality test and impulse response function to analysis how stock price index affected by each economic variables in long term.The results of research indicate that Chinese stock market and macroeconomic variation in general keep the same,however some parts are not.Exclude financial policy and exchange rate,the results prove that the rest five macroeconomic variables cannot affect stock price index in the same period.To illustrate,money supply and CPI is the Granger cause of shanghai composite index in fourth period,however in fifth period,the cause turns into interest rate,and value of exports is not a Granger cause until seventh period.According to the result of multiple linear regression,the affection on shanghai composite index of GDP changing would delay three period,and from the result of impulse response function,financial variables(money supply,interest rate,CPI and value of exports)will affect stock price index in long term after receive impact.Follow the result of Cointegration equation,stock price index is positive related with currency policy(money supply)and inflation,but negative related with interest rate in long term.These are in line with our usual perceptions.However the stock price index is negative related with value of exports.This is no in line with our usual perceptions.Last,in multiple linear regression models,there are situations contrary to theories.The results of multiple linear regression displays that GDP growth has negative related with stock price index.Thus the results of multiple linear regression model indicate that sometimes Chinese stock market deviate from economic growth,which hinder stock market forecast national economic healthy rate.Exclude GDP changing and stock price index changing is out of line with our usual perceptions,the relationship about stock price index with financial policy and interest rate could all supported by our usual perceptions.At the end of this paper,there are list of suggestions on related policies,for example,enhance related financial market system,and transfer government opinion.