Study On The Correlation Between Shanghai Composite Index And China's Policy

With the development of the society,the complexity of the global economic environment deepens,which causes the market to rely more and more on the economic policies.Therefore,the government's intervention on the social economy becomes more and more frequent,which to a certain extent affects the basic role of the market in the allocation of resources and the market's self-regulation,and increases the uncertainty of the economic policies.Throughout the stock market of our country,the sharp rise and fall that deviates from the economic development occur from time to time,the irrational trend of policy response is obvious,the participants are keen on short-term operation,the speculation atmosphere is strong,and the effective legal supervision system and feedback mechanism are lacking.In this context,exploring the relationship and influence mechanism between economic policies and China's stock market can not only effectively explain the characteristics of China's stock market,such as "policy market" and "news market",but also play an important role in improving the effectiveness of policies,improving market supervision and stabilizing the development of the stock market.The research of this paper is mainly abou three parts:First of all,at the level of index selection and theoretical analysis,this paper reviews China's major macroeconomic policies,such as monetary policy,fiscal policy,regulatory policy and other policies,shows the fluctuation of China's stock market in this period by chart,and sorts out the index of China's stock market since its establishment The trend of number change forms the up and down curve of the stock market,and the important factors related to the policy that affect the stock price fluctuation in each fluctuation cycle.It is found that in China,the major policy events that affect stock market volatility are mainly divided into four categories: monetary policy,fiscal policy,regulatory policy and other policies.In the normal state of stock market,the fluctuation of China's stock market is obviously affected by the policy,and the changes of the two are highly correlated.Then,at the level of empirical analysis,we use Pearson correlation test and VAR model to get the correlation value between the policy variable curve and the rise and fall curve of the stock market.The change of China's stock index is positively related to the policy influencing factors,and the fluctuation range of the index is stable with the strength and frequency of the policy influence.Through VAR model,Granger causality test,impulse response analysis and variance decomposition The measurement method shows that the change of Shanghai stock index's return rate is the Granger cause of the change of economic policy uncertainty index,and the influence mainly appears in the short-term significant characteristics.In addition,the change of stock market's return comes from its own change influence,while the effect of economic policy uncertainty factor on stock market's return is very small.Finally,the paper concludes the conclusions and puts forward some suggestions for the government,regulatory agencies,investors and listed companies: 1.The government should strengthen its macro-control ability,but avoid excessive intervention in the stock market,and fully consider the scientificity,foresight and sustainability of the policy when formulating the policy;2.The regulatory authorities should perfect the multi-level financial market system Third,the fundamental choice of Chinese stock investors is to follow the trend.Investors should learn to refer to market indicators,make reasonable judgments and investment decisions,and avoid irrational speculation.4.The essential influence of China's stock market is still from the inside.The quality of listed companies is the most essential and core factor.Therefore,listed companies should focus on improving their own management level,which is the internal driving force for the sustainable and stable development of the stock market.