Application Of Improved Bass Model In Forecasting New Product Demand

The demand forecasting of new products has always been the research object of many scholars,and plays an important role in the formulation of strategic guidelines,capital operation arrangements,and product design planning.Therefore,the demand forecasting of new products has important theoretical value and practical significance.This paper mainly discusses how to establish a new product demand forecasting model scientifically,including:how to make use of the congeneric product data to make up for the lack of data in the initial stage of product development?The theoretical basis of the improved model?How to improve the accuracy of new product demand forecasting?According to the above problem,based on the analysis of relevant research at home and abroad,we expand the Stochastic Bass Model and propose a Piecewise Stochastic Bass Model.From two aspects of how to solve the lack of initial data and how to improve the accuracy of prediction,the key issues such as the selection of similar products,the consideration of the influence factor of the demand and the solution of the parameter rolling update are studied deeply.Specifically,it includes:describe the characteristics of new products,find the corresponding similar products,and solve the problem of low prediction accuracy caused by the lack of initial data of new products;Considering the impact of the real sales volume of new products on the market potential,establishes a Piecewise Stochastic Bass Model,which comprehensively considered the selection of initial parameters,the setting of impact factors and the impact of real sales volume;Realize the updating of parameters in product demand forecasting to improve the new product demand forecast accuracy.This paper expects to put forward a set of systematic product demand forecasting methods for new products,in order to guide the production arrangement and capital planning of enterprises.At the end of this paper,we take the women's wear sales data of a company as an example to verify the validity of the Piecewise Stochastic Bass Model,and the improved model is not only more explanatory in the process of new product demand forecast,but also improve the new product demand forecast accuracy.