The impact of real estate speculation control policy: An interrupted time-series evaluation for Republic of Korea

The purpose of this study is twofold: (1) to provide empirical analysis about the effect of the Comprehensive Real Estate Speculation Control Policy in Korea, and (2) to derive theoretical implications about regulatory policy mechanisms, process, and context in a nonwestern society. This research evaluates the substantive impacts of the adopted regulatory instruments (e.g., the transfer income tax, transaction control devices) on six outcome variables, including land and housing price stabilization, rent protection for the poor, real estate service distribution, construction investment, and housing supply. This study also describes and assesses qualitatively the political process and context of the speculation control policy. Furthermore, the thesis derives propositions about the interactive processes of regulatory policy mechanisms, political-administrative system variables, intrasystem actors, external groups, and ecological factors in an "emerging democracy."; For impact analysis, seven linear and logged regression models and four ARIMA models are developed using an interrupted time-series design. These models assess policy impacts by controlling the influences of nonpolicy exogenous variables and estimating general trends and seasonal components. The multiple regression and ARIMA models reveal that the policy package brings about positive impacts on price stabilization, rent protection, and distributional justice, but introduces negative and unintended consequences upon construction investment and housing supply.; The main sources of the strong short-term impacts are the "lock-in" effects of the adopted regulatory instruments, the political game led by advocacy groups, the role of the chief executive and bureaucrats, and the concurrent sociopolitical dynamics, among others. Policy and implementation evolutions responding to political, social, and other situational changes constitute major reasons for the moderated long-term impacts.; Considering administrative structures, the system management model provides an appropriate description for macroimplementation networks, and the bargaining model for microimplementation contexts in a nonwestern society. Also, the multiple actors model largely explains the process of regulatory policy-making and implementation in an "emerging democracy." Furthermore, this policy case suggests a three-dimensional contingency view, describing that the severity of regulatory enforcement and the level of outcomes are a function of interactions among multiple variables working in the policy instrument dimension, the political-administrative systems dimension, and the ecological-environmental dimension.