Last in, first out: Is there a relationship between late application and early attrition among first-time college freshmen

Attrition is a major problem for universities in general and access (open-admission) colleges in particular. Students applying to a rolling admission, access college can be admitted and registered the day classes begin, without any forethought or preparation. Institutions that allow late admission may be doing a disservice to students who have not adequately prepared for their transition to college. This research examined 785 admissions files of first-time, matriculated college freshmen at an access college. Data were collected regarding the demographics, characteristics, and academic performance of these students. Using Tinto's model of attrition as the framework, these data were analyzed to test the following hypotheses: (1) Students who apply late have different characteristics from students who apply earlier. (2) Students who apply late do not perform as well academically as students who apply earlier. (3) Students who apply late are less likely to reenroll the subsequent term. The first hypothesis was analyzed using nine independent variables that represented a range of student characteristics (all of which were present in some form in Tinto's model of retention). When analyzed in combination, age, sex, high school academic performance, and students' enrollment objective proved to be the significant variables. This model accounted for 11.1% of the variance in students' date of application. Students' first term grade point average and their percentage of earned hours by attempted hours were the variables used to explore the second hypothesis. Patterns were evident that suggested that students who apply within the last few weeks of the term do not complete as many courses nor have as high a GPA as students who applied earlier. Despite that, neither variable proved to be statistically significant in relation to the date of application. The third hypothesis was confirmed. Groups of students who applied three weeks or less before the beginning of the term had higher percentages of attrition than students who applied earlier. According to this research, late applicants do exhibit different characteristics from students who apply earlier. These findings corroborate the high-risk profile for attrition in the professional and research literature.