Abortion, gay rights, and redistricting: How midterm voters are persuaded (or not) to vote

Using a 2014 poll that showed midterm voters were more motivated to vote against a candidate they viewed would endanger their rights as a guide, this study uses data from the Current Population Survey, a joint project of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Census, as well as calculated turnout rates from the United States Elections Project to estimate the effect of contentious ballot measures on voter turnout. Ballot measures that would restrict legal abortion were designated as "endangering," while similarly controversial measures related to same-sex marriage and redistricting were used as a basis of comparison. This study finds a statistically significant positive correlation between the presence of a measure that would restrict abortion on the ballot and voter turnout, suggesting that, as with candidates, midterm voters are more motivated to vote for ballot measures they view as a danger their rights.