| This thesis investigates the temporal transferability of trip distribution models in the Greater Toronto Area. Empirical studies of both strategic and tactical forecasts were carried out using travel behaviour databases collected in 1964, 1986, and 1996. Different model specifications, ranging from a proportional flow model (PFM) to various market segmentations of auto travel time models (ATTM), were tested to investigate the relationship between model specification and transfer effectiveness. Results indicate that both long-range and short-range transferred models provide very useful information about travel behaviour in the application contexts. Pragmatically, these transfer models exhibited comparable results with that of estimated models. At the disaggregate level, the relatively short-range (10-year) transferability test showed better results compared with longer-range tests. Aggregate prediction measures showed mixed results for both short and long term forecast applications. This might be attributed to aggregation errors. Consistently, the well specified models such as occupationally disaggregated models and driver's licence/household auto-ownership models transferred better. |
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