The Effects of Changing Land Use and Climate on the Hydrology and Carbon Budget of Lake Simcoe Watershed, Ontario, Canada

The Lake Simcoe watershed (LSW) has experienced significant population growth and is under pressure from development. This has led to land use changes in the watershed in addition to the global climate change that is impacting every region of the world. In this thesis, remote sensing analysis, statistics and process-based modelling approaches were used to better understand dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and runoff dynamics in the changing landscape of LSW. The process-based approach involved the use of the HBV (Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning) rainfall runoff model and the Integrated Catchment Model for Carbon (INCA-C). Statistical downscaling of the Canadian General Circulation Model (CGCM3) was used to predict the impact of climate change under the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) A1B and A2 scenarios.;There was a significant land use change in LSW between 1994 and 2009 with a positive monotonic trend in runoff ratio across tributaries. Large increase in runoff ratio without corresponding increase in precipitation suggested that runoff drains more quickly over the land surfaces; an indication of increasing urban-induced impervious surfaces. However, there was a significant increase in air temperature (MK = 0.315; p<0.01) and precipitation (MK = 0.290; p<0.01) outside the fifteen year (1994-2009) window. This translated to an increase in air temperature of ∼0.7°C and precipitation by ∼6.3% at the end of the forty year period (1960-2000). This suggested that historical meteorological conditions in the LSW have evolved to a warmer-wetter condition in the recent time and this might serve as a pointer of future conditions if the current trend persists. Both A1B and A2 scenarios predicted an increase in air temperature by a maximum of 1.4°C by 2050 and up to 3.5°C by 2100 relative to the baseline period (1960-2000). HBV predicted a largest variability in the spring and winter season's runoff regimes (2020-2050) under both A1B and A2 scenarios.;A 5% increase in DOC concentration and a 6% increase in flux were observed between period 1 (1994-1997) and period 2 (2007-2009). The observed increases were driven by spring (20%) and summer (26%). INCA-C predicted a positive monotonic increase in long-term DOC concentrations (2020-2100) in surface waters draining into Lake Simcoe under both scenarios with the largest seasonal variations in DOC concentrations predicted to occur in the summer months. This indicates the sensitivity of surface water quantity-quality to rising air temperature with the possibility of an increase in CO2 emissions from the rivers in the future. Understanding the processes that mediate DOC mobilization into Lake Simcoe from its catchment may lead to improvements in watershed management and a better understanding of other carbon dependent biogeochemical processes such as mercury.;Keywords: CGCM, Climate change, Dissolved organic carbon, Environmental modelling, HBV model, Hydrology, INCA-C, Lake Simcoe, Land use change, Remote sensing, SDSM, Statistical downscaling.