| The objective of this study is to investigate the economic impacts of Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) certification on global trade of forest products. Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) is used to predict export, import and net trade quantity of several forest products from year 2006 to 2056. The simulation findings suggest that: (1) Under the assumption that FSC certification plays negative effects on forest stock, Europe reduced sawnwood export; while Ireland became the net importer of sawnwood and wood pulp for next fifty years. (2) Under the assumption that FSC certification has no effects on forest stock, North America, Europe and Asia became the three major sawnwood importers; Europe and North America dominated sawnwood export; Africa significantly expanded its market share of sawnwood export from 1.3% in 2006 to 8.8% in 2056. Africa and Asia became the two largest importers of fuelwood. (3) Under the assumption that FSC certification plays positive effects on forest stock, Europe increased its export of sawnwood; Ireland became the net exporter of sawnwood and wood pulp since 2026. However, FSC certification has no impact on the trend of forestry stocks and products in Canada. |
