Mechanistic modeling of sylvatic arboviruses in Senegal

Many arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) occur in two distinct transmission cycles: transmission among non-human hosts by mosquitoes (termed the sylvatic cycle) and transmission among humans by mosquitoes in villages and cities (termed the human cycle). These viruses transmitted predominantly via a sylvatic cycle may nonetheless cause considerable morbidity and mortality to humans living or working in proximity to primate populations. Further, sylvatic cycles represent virus reservoirs that will support transmission even if transmission among human populations were eliminated. Using a uniquely rich ecological dataset from the Institute Pastur de Dakar, Senegal, this thesis quantifies patterns observed in dengue fever virus, yellow fever virus, chikungunya virus, and zika virus isolates over the past 50 years and attempts to explain these patterns through mechanistic models. We find non-human primate demographics may determine the periodicity of isolations observed in Senegal, and that mosquito biting on more than one species may act to synchronize isolations across hosts and vectors. To refine mechanistic models of dengue transmission, we perform a systematic review and pooled analysis to quantify the time from inoculation to viremia and duration of viremia for dengue fever virus in flavivirus naive non-human primates and identify associations between these and several primate characteristics while adjusting for study heterogeneity. Finally, we explore periodicities of all four viruses and mosquito capture abundances of three key mosquito species and find ecological associations between virus isolation, mosquito abundance, and climactic variables. This thesis is a springboard to launch further explorations of the sylvatic cycle of arboviruses in Senegal and, indeed, across the globe.