Forecasting Residual Demand In Markets With Significant Wind Power Penetration

This thesis addresses the issue of better forecasts of residual electrical power demand. Residual demand is total electric power load demand minus total renewable energy generation. The key player in volatile and uncertain renewable energy generation is wind power. It is usually accommodated into the grid on the basis of priority being given to green energy. Thus, residual load is more volatile and uncertain than total electric load.;Existing methods for determining future residual demand do not always produce very accurate results. Therefore, a new method is proposed. To test it, two markets with significant wind power penetration are chosen.;Testing the proposed approach using a new residual demand forecast model is the main focus of the thesis. Also, testing the models developed for load and wind power forecast is an objective. To know the practicality of the developed models, numerical results are compared against the forecasts generated by the independent system operators of the electricity markets, whenever such forecasts were available.