| The power load forecasting is the basic work of electric power scheduling, planning, and scheming. A scientific and rational power load forecasting provides a strong basis for power system short-term scheduling and long-term planning. In recent years, with the gradual development and improvement of China’s market economy, the electricity market is also gradually transit to a market-oriented system. This result for a higher requirement for power load forecasting. Within power load forecasting, a scientifically accurate annual forecast and monthly forecast not only alterations to the unit, the choice of new generating units to provide practical reference the basis of the network planning can also provide a reference, it is to ensure that the power system safe and reliable operation of the premise.On the basis of sufficiently reading related literatures about the power load forecast at home and abroad, at the same time combining with the practical work at Baotou power supply bureau by myself, this paper gets a deeply exposition about the power load forecasting theory and prediction methods. In order to provide the basic data for grid planning, be sure the annual and monthly maintenance plan, operation mode, generation scheduling, etc. Which is the annual electricity load forecasting and monthly electricity load forecasting’s function. So according to the literature4stated, the electricity load forecasting based on Baotou should be from the two aspects of annual and monthly. The annual electricity load may be influenced by such as population distribution, industrial restructuring and so on, it is said that the annual electricity load has the gray system characteristic. So the annual electric load forecasting model should be set based on gray system GM(1,N), while we find that the load of the month has a linear relationship with it in a few months before and it in the same month in previous years. Therefore, this paper establishes the monthly electric load forecasting model based on monthly series regression.Finally, the paper conducts an in-depth study on case of the power load forecasting of the Baotou region, which carries through the annual and monthly electricity load forecasting respectively, and be realized by using SQLserver2008tool. And as expected the power load forecasting models designed for Baotou region reaches the satisfied precision, achieving the expected purpose. |
