Sensitivity analysis of baseline carbon estimates for a Bolivian Redd initiative (the Noel Kempff Mercado National Park Climate Action Project)

The measurement of uncertainty levels in the estimation of Carbon Baselines is a challenge that REDD (Reduction of Greenhouse Gasses Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) projects must address. Using the Bolivian REDD initiative known as The Noel Kempff Mercado National Park Climate Action Project as a case study, I tested the sensitivity of the modeled deforestation rate and avoided carbon baseline (ACB) to various input parameters. The results indicated that projected deforestation is most sensitive to the time-period from which the extrapolation is derived, but also sensitive to the geographic area in which it is quantified. The ACB model is most sensitive to the time period of deforestation rate calibration, followed by the geographic area in which changed is observed. These results have several implications related to the performance achieved by the NKMCAP over the ten years since its implementation.