| Scenario analysis is an approach to long-term planning that aids with the consideration of highly uncertain future conditions. The method involves developing and analyzing possible scenarios of the future of the system under question and considering the implications - economic, social, and environmental -- of each scenario. Scenario-based studies, since emerging during the second half of the 20th century, are rapidly growing in popularity, yet many aspects of the method are not fully understood. The willing suspension of disbelief is an integral component of scenario-based studies, as it is necessary for considering alternative future scenarios. Participation in a scenario project does not necessarily imply willingness or ability to suspend disbelief; participants may not suspend disbelief simply upon request. However, the scenario literature says little about the aspects of scenario-based studies that influence suspension of disbelief.;Participants in this scenario project differed in their abilities to suspend their disbelief in the scenarios in part because of their own cognitive styles, past experiences and expertise in particular areas, and their assessments of probable and desired future outcomes. Further, elements of the project design and implementation, including the project introduction, core team, facilitators, and group discussions and dynamics influenced participants' abilities. As well, participants themselves created new and recalled existing stories to be able to get to the place where they could, and would, suspend disbelief. The study's results have implications for those interested in using scenarios for helping people and communities envision possible futures.;Using the Sustainable Forest Management Network's Forest Futures Project as a case study, I explored the influences on the suspension of disbelief in one scenario exercise to initiate the consideration of this fundamental aspect of scenario thinking. I undertook a review of the literature on scenarios, psychological (cognitive) theory, planning theory, and literary theory to help understand the complex interplay of factors involved in the suspension of disbelief in scenarios. I interviewed 30 participants in the Forest Futures Project regarding their responses to the method of future thinking and ability to suspend disbelief in the project's scenarios, and observed seven Forest Futures Project workshops in communities across Canada. |
