The "through Train" To Suspend Reason Analysis Of Its Opening In The Future Feasibility Of Empirical Research

On August 20, 2007, National Foreign Exchange Bureau announces "Development Domestic Individual Direct investment Foreign Stock market Experiment site Plan", the permission domestic carries on the foreign investment personally, the Chinese government announced that will open a person to Hong Kong stock market investment, all only then China resident identification card's individual may carry on the foreign investment legally. However less than three months, "Chinese invest in Hong Kong" the policy announces postpones. Had the numerous scholars to propose the academic opinion, some scholars supported "the Hong Kong stock market direct bus" to promote immediately, thought this policy might alleviate the domestic fund surplus pressure, might also increase the resident to invest the channel; Another some scholars thought that the present our country domestic financial system has not met the opening requirement, this policy promotes possibly brings the bigger financial risk, also possibly repeats "stock B market disturbance", wraps jail domestic investor's consequences and so on fund. In this paper, the purpose of the research is to study and research of these scholars, academic point of view, from the point of view of a number of " Chinese invest in Hong Kong " policy and the reasons for the suspension of the need, and further research to be evidence of the policy in the future have to restart the The feasibility of the conclusions in order to fully answer the "Hong Kong stocks through-train" policy and why the future can defer the opening.In the study, in my analysis of the "Hong Kong stocks through-train" policy reasons for the suspension, the 2007 four years on November 4, Premier Wen Jiabao expressed the Government's "4:00 to consider" the main line through the stock market to mainland and Hong Kong stock market Compared the method, come to the mainland stock markets are imperfect, immature, and do not have the Hong Kong stock market into line with the conclusions, as well as the Hong Kong stock market while the mainland stock market did not have the mechanisms for short selling transactions and other mechanisms, so that mainland investors are facing Some of the conclusions of the investment risk. In addition, this article also use the analysis of evidence to the contrary, assume that the introduction of the current policy may lead to more hot money flowing into the territory, hold-up capital and other investors in the territory of negative results, and thus one step further proof of the "Hong Kong stocks Through train "to suspend the validity of the policy. Then, to illustrate the "Hong Kong stocks through-train" policy in the future must have the resumption of the feasibility of this article from the Hong Kong stock market and the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes start with data, nearly 10 years of data on non-tradable share reform to the beginning of time as a dividing line Before and after the point is divided into two sections, the use of measurement tools, the Hong Kong stock market compared with the stock market in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong stock market in the stock market before and after the share reform-related changes in the two places come to the stock market to strengthen the linkage of the conclusions. That is, both the stock market continued to strengthen integration trends in order to achieve the launch of two stock market integration, "Hong Kong stocks through-train" policy in the future have to restart the feasibility of the conclusions.