The emergence of three worlds of welfare

Gosta Esping-Andersen's "three worlds" typology of welfare state regimes has become the dominant heuristic for classifying and examining contemporary welfare states. Despite its widespread adoption, however, few systematic efforts have been made to determine when these three worlds first emerged or for what range of history the tripartite typology is applicable. After extending and refining Esping-Andersen's conceptual framework for distinguishing welfare state regimes, this study examines cross-sectional data for each five-year interval from 1950 through 1995 for evidence of tripartite clustering. Using two forms of cluster analysis---a model-based approach and an agglomerative hierarchical approach---on each of these cross-sections, this study finds that the three worlds of welfare first began emerging by 1975, became more distinct by 1980, and were stable by 1985. These findings are consistent with prominent explanations of welfare state development that emphasize the role of cumulative partisan political incumbency and path dependence.