| Tobacco use continues to be a major health concern worldwide. Better understanding of factors influencing cigarette consumption may help reduce tobacco use and diminish associated public health costs and consequences through public policy changes and improved tobacco control campaigns. In the past, tobacco consumption in the United States (US) has been related to expenditures on tobacco control media campaigns, cigarette price (actual pack price plus tax), tobacco marketing expenditures and product smuggling. This study tests a time series multi-factorial consumption model using economic data aimed at estimating the optimally effective future tobacco pricing levels (in order to reduce consumption), including taxation. Data was gathered from the National Center for Health Statistics, the Center for Disease Control and Prevention and various economic reports, and trends were compared across 47 US states. To account for time-dependent measures and autocorrelation, longitudinal mixed models were developed. Findings indicate the strongest reductions in cigarette sales and consumption would be achieved with increasing the per pack costs. While cigarette sales demonstrate a strong linear relationship with price, consumption and price seem to have a quadratic relationship, suggesting an optimal level of tax increase. Increasing investment in tobacco control campaigns was not found related to reductions in the sale or consumption of tobacco products, suggesting current funding levels are not significantly effective. |
