The Construction And Empirical Research Of The Early Warning Index System Of Systemic Financial Risk In China

With the development of economic globalization,social informatization,and the accelerating process of RMB internationalization,the financial markets of various countries are increasingly connected,and the risks of international financial markets are more complicated.From an international perspective,the current dual international economic conflicts of "low oil prices,low interest rates,low inflation,low potential growth rates" and "high leverage,high asset prices,high market volatility,high risks" are intensifying;from a domestic perspective,China's economic development is at a stage of the new economic normal.The downward pressure on the economy is increasing.Insufficient demand and overcapacity are still two major problems in the Chinese economy.The phenomenon of homogenization of Internet financial products is obvious.The high leverage makes the stability of the domestic financial system increasingly fragile,etc.Various international and domestic factors continue to affect China's systemic financial security.After the Eighteenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China,the leadership group of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core has repeatedly emphasized the importance of "holding firmly the bottom line where no systemic financial risks occur" and "ensuring that no systemic financial risks occur." Therefore,it is of great practical significance to study the systemic financial risk early-warning indicators and early-warning status issues that are applicable to China's national conditions.Based on the above-mentioned national conditions background,first of all,this paper summarizes the domestic and foreign research results of systemic financial risk,and explains in detail the domestic and foreign relevant method basis of the early warning model and the existing research in the index selection and empirical analysis.And comprehensively pointed out the shortcomings of the existing research.Secondly,it analyzes the contagion mechanism of systemic financial risks,and conducts detailed analysis from the three major directions of basic concept,contagious cause and contagion mechanism,and combines the current situation of China's economic development and relevant national policies to explain Sources and current status of systemic financial risk contagion.Thirdly,by analyzing the deficiencies of the existing research in the early warning indicator system,we selected the systemic system that can evaluate China's national conditions from six different economic markets: macroeconomics,financial system,foreign economy,bubble economy,internet economy,and leverage ratio.The financial risk early-warning indicators have initially formed a systemic financial risk earlywarning indicator system based on China's current national development.Among them,the P2 P online lending platform index in the internet financial index and the leverage ratio index under the macro economy have not been involved too much in previous studies.The thesis analyzes the risk pressures of different economic markets in China from 2000 to 2019,and explains the rationality of the indicators based on the actual development status.Finally,on the basis of the above research,the maximum information coefficient is used to improve the traditional principal component analysis method,and a complete early warning model of China's systemic financial risk is established.The effectiveness and applicability of the early warning model are verified by BP neural network.After empirical research,five policy recommendations are proposed on how to prevent and resolve China's systemic financial risks.