Research On Financial Risk Warning System Of P2P Network Loan Platform

Internet finance relies on Internet big data to provide financial services and realize financial functions.It is an innovation of the financial industry's "touching the net".P2P network lending relies on the Internet platform to meet the needs of small and medium?sized loans,and promotes the inclusive financial process,which is a relatively mainstream Internet financial model.In recent years,the P2P industry has continued to develop,alleviating the problem of personal capital turnover,helping small and medium-sized enterprises to obtain initial capital,and promoting the prosperity of China's market economy.On the other hand,the emergence of P2P has also enriched the investment path of the people and eased the real estate speculation.Hot sight.The savage growth of the online lending platform is accompanied by frequent risks.In recent years,there have been reports of difficulties in the media reporting platform,running,and other news.The growth rate of P2P in China has slowed down,and the public's trust in the P2P industry has declined.P2P online lending platform risk mainly uses two aspects of platform operation status and lending behavior.The complex and volatile macroeconomics and the continuous introduction of regulatory policies have increased the risk uncertainty.The current academic achievements are mainly the operation mode,behavioral factors,risk supervision and other aspects of P2P online lending,and the number of financial risk warnings is small.In addition,in the existing risk warning literature,the selection of indicators is subjective and limited,and some of the policy guidance norms that are not suitable for P2P online lending,coupled with the lack of in-depth analysis of the problem platform,does not include the quality of asset-side projects.In the risk early warning system,therefore,this paper selects more perfect and more reasonable indicators to construct the P2P online loan platform financial risk early warning system,and achieves the goal of early warning and then police.This paper starts from two perspectives at home and abroad,combs and summarizes the previous scholars'research on P2P network loan and risk early warning,and defines the definition scope of P2P network lending and financial risk,explains relevant theories and lays a foundation for subsequent research.Secondly,it analyzes the development history,operation mode and current situation of P2P,and analyzes the causes of the tide of 2018 from the macroeconomic,industrial and microscopic aspects.Based on the CAMEL evaluation system,15 indicators including registered capital,balance to be received,guarantees,target quantity,and project quality were used to construct a financial risk indicator system.62 financial problems occurred in 2018 from Guotaian database and third-party evaluation agencies.The platform,with the same number of normal platforms,constitutes 124 samples,and the data at the end of 2017 is selected for empirical analysis.Firstly,principal component analysis is used to reduce the dimension of 15 indicators,and the principal component factor is obtained as the independent variable.Then the operating state of the platform in 2018 is used as the dependent variable,and it is substituted into the binary logisitic regression model to solve the problem.The financial risk early warning system of P2P online loan platform is established and tested..Finally,recommendations for platform managers and investors are proposed in combination with risk causes and platform prediction status.The research found that the indicators selected according to the CAMEL system can basically cover the financial risks of the P2P platform,and the financial risk early warning system established by the integrated principal component analysis and binary logistic has a prediction accuracy of more than 80%,which can accurately predict the financial risks.