The Impact Of House Price Fluctuation On Urban Residents' Consumption In The Yangtze River Delta

The Yangtze River Delta region is one of China's most developed economies and the highest degree of urban agglomeration.Corresponding to the level of regional economic development,since the reform of the urban housing system deepened in 1998,the real estate industry in the Yangtze River Delta has developed rapidly.The Yangtze River Delta region has become one of the regions with relatively high house prices nationwide.Since entering the new century,the income and consumption levels of residents in the two provinces and one city in the Yangtze River Delta region have greatly improved.Although the disposable income of urban residents and the absolute number of per capita consumption expenditures of residents have greatly increased,they are consistent with the national trend,and the per capita consumption propensity of urban residents in the Yangtze River Delta area is decreasing year by year.The two hot spots of house prices and consumption have received widespread attention from the whole society.Therefore,it is necessary to study the influence of housing price fluctuations on the consumption of urban residents in the Yangtze River Delta and its transmission mechanism.This article is based on an analysis of housing prices and urban residents' consumption in the Yangtze River Delta.Using the three-phase CFPS microdata of 2014,2016 and 2018,the two-way fixed effect model is used to conduct an empirical analysis of the impact of house price fluctuations on consumption of urban residents in the Yangtze River Delta.Conduction mechanism.The results of the study show that:(1)For every 10% increase in house prices,the consumption expenditure of urban residents in the Yangtze River Delta increased by 1.42%.(2)For every 10% increase in house prices,the non-residential consumption expenditure of urban residents in the Yangtze River Delta increased by 1.81%.Next,this article divides consumer spending into subsistence consumption and development consumption.For every 10% increase in house prices,subsistence consumption increases by 1.2%,and development consumption increases by 3.6%.It can be seen that the rise in house prices promotes non-residential consumption,subsistence consumption,and development consumption in urban residents in the Yangtze River Delta.It is also beneficial to upgrade the consumption structure in a region.(3)Through the analysis of residents of different types of housing property rights,this article finds that for every 10% increase in housing prices,the consumption expenditure of residents of urban commercial housing in the Yangtze River Delta increases by 2.13%,which is greater than that of residents with fully owned housing.Budget constraints and substitution effects are not obvious Wealth effects are common among urban residents who own fully-owned housing,and those who have more than one set of housing assets have stronger wealth effects,and are more manifested as wealth confidence effects or wealth effects realized by selling real estate.The introduction of the cross-terms of mortgage loan expenditures and house prices verified the existence of a liquidity constraint effect on residents with fully-owned housing.By introducing the cross-terms of gender and house prices of unmarried family members,it shows that influenced by traditional concepts,the existence of male unmarried family members has indeed suppressed the consumption expenditure of urban residents in the Yangtze River Delta to some extent.