Study On The Default Risk Of China's Bond Market

With the rapid development of China's bond market,bond default incidents are also increasing.Especially in recent years,China's economy has entered a new normal,and the introduction of the "three go,one drop,one supplement" policy has had a large impact on China's economy and financial markets.Among them,deleveraging and capacity reduction have the greatest impact on enterprises,and indirectly lead to the occurrence of many bond defaults and disrupt the order of the financial market.Against this background,this thesis attempts to establish a dynamic system for predicting bond defaults,and uses the energy industry and related companies as examples to verify and predict the prediction system.This thesis first analyzes the macroeconomic situation and analyzes the causes of bond defaults in the energy industry from a qualitative perspective: there are mainly internal management and strategic issues of enterprises and bottlenecks in industry development.Next,this thesis selects a number of indicators related to the energy industry,macroeconomics,and business operations.After analysis,a default warning indicator system is constructed and finally five liquidities,leverage,profitability indicators,enterprise size,and macro factors are selected.In terms of aspects,significant indicators such as default distance,current ratio,enterprise size,price-to-book ratio,volatility,current ratio,risk-free interest rate,and stock index return rate were selected.Through the Forward Intensity model,the selected samples in the entire energy industry and specific case companies are predicted for default probability under different term structures.Based on the output data and the actual situation of the case companies,the causes of bond defaults are analyzed.Provide corresponding risk prevention and management suggestions to enterprises,and provide investment advice to investors,and provide supervisors with advice on effective regulatory system construction.