Research On RMB Exchange Rate Changes,FDI And The Evolution Of Tianjin’s Industrial Structure

In the process of industrial restructuring,multiple factors have played a role and interacted.In the context of economic globalization,the flow of commodities,capital,technology,and human capital will change the endowment of factors of production in regions or countries.As a price signal for capital flows between countries,exchange rates will direct production factors directly to industries with higher production efficiency and benefits.It will also affect more industries upstream and downstream of the industry chain through industry association effects.At the same time,the flow of production factors such as goods and services is usually accompanied by the flow of high-tech and high-quality human capital.The spillover effect of technical knowledge is also very important for the optimization and adjustment of regional industrial structure.As a coastal port city,Tianjin has the first national comprehensive reform and innovation zone-Binhai New Area.The proportion of foreign direct investment FDI inflows has always occupied the forefront of China,and it has a pivotal position in Tianjin ’s economic and social development;on the other hand,Tianjin is an important economic,trade and shipping center in northern China,and has the inherent advantages of manufacturing.At this stage,Tianjin has once again positioned itself as "one base and three zones".The important point of the national advanced R & D base is to support traditional manufacturing.The industry is transforming to high value-added value for the innovation and upgrading of producer services.Therefore,this paper uses FDI as the main approach to study the relationship between the exchange rate change of RMB and the evolution of the industrial structure of Tianjin.Optimal allocation leads to industrial structure adjustment.The article first sorts out related literatures on domestic and foreign scholars about the impact of exchange rate changes on the adjustment of industrial structure through a path of foreign direct investment,and makes a review of the literature to provide material support for the writing of the article.Then it makes a theoretical explanation of the impact of exchange rate on the adjustment of industrial structure through the FDI path,which is explained from the perspective of long-and short-term perspectives and FDI from different motivations.Descriptive description and analysis of research variables.Including the evolution of the RMB exchange rate system,changes in exchange rates,changes in the scale of FDI inflows in Tianjin,and the evolution of the industrial structure of Tianjin.Finally,using the MSVAR model to analyze the non-linear effects between variables,and then through the regional characteristics analysis and impulse response analysis,on the one hand,empirical testing of FDI channels,on the other hand,the analysis of changes in the real effective exchange rate of RMB The impact of structural adjustment.Through the above relevant analysis,the following conclusions are drawn: In the period from the first quarter of 2009 to the fourth quarter of 2018,the economic system of Tianjin can be roughly divided into two states for research.The first is the appreciation of the real effective exchange rate of RMB,The state of FDI inflows and relatively volatile industrial structure.At this time,Tianjin ’s economic situation is unstable,and the second state indicates that the fluctuations of the variables are relatively smooth;the relationship between each variable has obvious nonlinearity in different economic states Effect,during the time when Tianjin ’s economic situation was stable,the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate had a restraining effect on FDI inflows,but it promoted the adjustment of industrial structure.As a result,the proportion of the secondary industry increased and the proportion of the tertiary industry decreased.In both cases,the increase in the total amount of FDI could not promote the adjustment of the industrial structure of Tianjin.In addition,the unstable economic state is easier to transition to the stable economic state However,under stable economic conditions,changes in the real effective exchange rate of the renminbi have a longer transmission time and less obvious effect on FDI and the industrial structure of Tianjin.Finally,based on the above analysis and conclusions,the article puts forward some positive suggestions based on how the current development status of Tianjin further promotes the adjustment of industrial structure in the adjustment of RMB exchange rate,the construction of business environment and the improvement of relevant laws and regulations on foreign investment.