The Impacts Of Sino-U.S.Trade Friction On China’s Agricultural Products Import

Since 2018,U.S.trade protectionism has resurrected,trade frictions between China and the United States have gradually intensified.The United States keeps stirring up trade disputes with China and announced the imposition of retaliatory tariffs on Chinese imports.As a counterattack,China has also imposed tariffs on products imported from the United States,and agricultural products are China’s "heavy punch." However,has China’s tariff response really suppressed the import of agricultural products from the United States? Will there be a trade diversion effect? In general,what is the impact of tariff countermeasures on the overall quantity and price of China’s agricultural products? The answers to the above questions will help us to evaluate the trade effect of China’s tariff countermeasures against the United States in agricultural products from a post perspective,as well as the cost-benefit of such countermeasures.Therefore,on the basis of sorting out the evolution of Sino-U.S.Trade frictions,this article describes and analyzes the dynamics of the import situation of China’s agricultural products,which import from the United States and other countries,before and after the implementation of the tariff policy.Then this article constructs Double Difference Model and uses monthly import data from January 2018 to May 2019 to empirically evaluate the impact of tariff countermeasures on China’s agricultural product imports.The main conclusions are as follows:First,China’s countermeasures against the United States have had a significant trade restriction effect,which has significantly inhibited the import of agricultural products from the United States.The United States has responded to this situation by reducing the price of agricultural products.As a result,the export interests of the United States’ agricultural products to China have been damaged,and the imposition of tariffs has achieved a certain countervailing effect.The empirical results show that the import volume of relevant agricultural products is reduced by 47.3% and the average import price(CIF)is reduced by 11.3% by the imposition of tariff.Second,China’s countermeasures against the United States have had a significant effect on the transfer of agricultural imports,causing China to increase the import of agricultural products from other countries and regions other than the United States.The estimated results indicate that the increase in tariffs has increased China’s imports from other sources by approximately 16.3%,but it has not had a significant impact on import prices.Third,China’s countermeasures against the United States have significantly increased China’s total agricultural imports,but have not significantly increased the overall average import price.Therefore,as far as agricultural trade is concerned,tariff countermeasures have not had a substantial negative impact on China.Although the imposition of tariffs on the United States significantly inhibited China’s imports of agricultural products from the United States,due to the significant trade transfer effect,the countermeasures did not cause a negative impact on China’s overall imports of agricultural products,but increased the total imports by approximately 17%.At the same time,tariff increases the average import price by 1%,but this result is not significant.All in all,China’s countermeasures against the United States has inhibited the export of US agricultural products to China,damaged the interests of US,and achieved a certain effect.However,due to the transfer effect,the total import volume of China’s agricultural products has not been significantly negatively affected,and the tariff countermeasures has not caused a substantial negative impact on China’s agricultural product imports.Based on the above research conclusions,this article finally interprets the corresponding policy implications.