Economic Benefit Evaluation On Real-estate Investment Project Z

With the rapid development of China’s market economy and the gradual standardization of market behavior,investment activity,as a kind of major economic development element,are usually regarded as the best approach to allocate and integrate economic resources and mobilize a variety of development elements to participate in market development.Furthermore,investment activity not only affects the current economic benefits of investors,in the long run will also affect the long-term development of social productive forces.Due to the characteristics of long-term real estate projects,large investments,high risks,and far-reaching social and environmental impacts,uncertainties in the development process may directly affect the project’s investment results.In the past,financial evaluation methods often used static indicators,and it was difficult to consider the dynamic factors that occurred during the entire development process of the project.As a result,it was impossible to effectively prevent possible risks in advance,and sometimes even lead to project losses,and to project developers and consumers.The various development units involved in the project and the environment and society have incalculable negative impacts.Therefore,the identification of the possible uncertainties in the project development process and the estimation of their impact are very important tasks in the project feasibility study.Based on the background of Z real estate project in Qingdao City,this paper estimates the cost,income,profit and cash flow of the project,and the profitability and solvency of the project are analyzed on this basis,and the financial net current value,financial internal rate of return,investment profit rate,investment recovery period and other indicators are calculated.Analyzes and summarizes uncertainties that may affect the economics of the project.The development cycle,sales price,and development cost are the object of the study.Uncertainty factors for the Z project are estimated based on the normal distribution model and the threepoint estimation method.The impact of economic efficiency.The study found that under the condition of 95% reliability,the development cycle is(7)41.53?1.20(8)months.Through the statistical analysis of the current project price and the forecast of the future house price trend,the change trend of the unit price during the project development process is estimated,and the development cost Change rate is(7)6.14 ?2.04(8)%.Through the analysis of the uncertainty factors,the average financial net present value is calculated to be 2026.73 million yuan,with a standard deviation of 860.34 million yuan.At the 95% guarantee rate,the financial net present value of the project is greater than 0,which means that the project can guarantee profitability with high probability,considering the uncertainties.